Recent corporate governance shifts, including Tesla's SEC approval for auto-voting retail shares, have boosted trader sentiment around a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger by simplifying board-approved deals. Elon Musk's noncommittal but collaborative remarks on the Q2 2026 earnings call, alongside SpaceX's recent IPO and deepening AI and autonomous systems synergies, have sustained speculation without triggering an official announcement. Key hurdles include Tesla's China operations and shareholder approvals, while upcoming catalysts like the delayed 2026 annual meeting or further regulatory filings could accelerate or stall momentum. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty amid these verified developments.