Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.5% implied probability for SpaceX raising $50-60 billion in its anticipated IPO, reflecting caution around execution amid a recent $800 billion private valuation from December's tender offer—up sharply from prior rounds but well below the $1.75-2 trillion public targets floated in April filings. Starlink's explosive growth to over 9 million subscribers and Starship launch successes bolster revenue projections near $18.5 billion for 2025, yet high multiples (95x trailing sales per ARK estimates) raise bubble risks in a volatile equity market. Key catalysts include the June 8 roadshow kickoff and prospectus details, with regulatory approvals and Musk's retail allocation push potentially swaying final sizing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$138,931 Vol.
$138,931 Vol.
<40B
10%
40-50B
8%
50-60B
35%
60-70B
9%
70-80B
22%
80-90B
4%
90-100B
6%
100-110B
3%
110-120B
4%
120B+
1%
$138,931 Vol.
$138,931 Vol.
<40B
$10,245 Vol.
10%
40-50B
$5,637 Vol.
8%
50-60B
$33,177 Vol.
35%
60-70B
$14,185 Vol.
9%
70-80B
$24,628 Vol.
22%
80-90B
$15,593 Vol.
4%
90-100B
$10,724 Vol.
6%
100-110B
$7,565 Vol.
3%
110-120B
$9,411 Vol.
4%
120B+
$7,767 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.5% implied probability for SpaceX raising $50-60 billion in its anticipated IPO, reflecting caution around execution amid a recent $800 billion private valuation from December's tender offer—up sharply from prior rounds but well below the $1.75-2 trillion public targets floated in April filings. Starlink's explosive growth to over 9 million subscribers and Starship launch successes bolster revenue projections near $18.5 billion for 2025, yet high multiples (95x trailing sales per ARK estimates) raise bubble risks in a volatile equity market. Key catalysts include the June 8 roadshow kickoff and prospectus details, with regulatory approvals and Musk's retail allocation push potentially swaying final sizing.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$138,931Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.5% implied probability for SpaceX raising $50-60 billion in its anticipated IPO, reflecting caution around execution amid a recent $800 billion private valuation from December's tender offer—up sharply from prior rounds but well below the $1.75-2 trillion public targets floated in April filings. Starlink's explosive growth to over 9 million subscribers and Starship launch successes bolster revenue projections near $18.5 billion for 2025, yet high multiples (95x trailing sales per ARK estimates) raise bubble risks in a volatile equity market. Key catalysts include the June 8 roadshow kickoff and prospectus details, with regulatory approvals and Musk's retail allocation push potentially swaying final sizing.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$138,931Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.5% implied probability for SpaceX raising $50-60 billion in its anticipated IPO, reflecting caution around execution amid a recent $800 billion private valuation from December's tender offer—up sharply from prior rounds but well below the $1.75-2 trillion public targets floated in April filings. Starlink's explosive growth to over 9 million subscribers and Starship launch successes bolster revenue projections near $18.5 billion for 2025, yet high multiples (95x trailing sales per ARK estimates) raise bubble risks in a volatile equity market. Key catalysts include the June 8 roadshow kickoff and prospectus details, with regulatory approvals and Musk's retail allocation push potentially swaying final sizing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions