SpaceX’s recent Flight 13 success in July 2026, where Ship 40 achieved a precise, intact soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean, provided the key data on heat shield performance, attitude control, and landing burn accuracy that convinced engineers the upper stage could meet the tight tolerances for a tower catch. Elon Musk publicly stated an attempt would occur on the next flight unless post-flight review revealed issues, later refining the timeline to “a few months.” Flight 14 on September 28 reached orbit for the first time and deployed Starlink V3 satellites but prioritized that milestone over a catch attempt, opting instead for a Pacific splashdown after an engine anomaly. Booster catches with the same “chopsticks” arms have succeeded multiple times since late 2024, building operational confidence, while ongoing tower upgrades, regulatory clearances, and vehicle-specific testing remain the main near-term catalysts. Market sentiment reflects optimism from demonstrated precision but accounts for the added complexity of orbital-class reentry and potential timeline slips.