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icon for Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Tech·AI

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

icon for Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Tech·AI

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

$95,863 Vol.

Jun 30, 2027
Polymarket

$95,863 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Moonshot AI

Moonshot AI

$3,259 Vol.

35%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$24,870 Vol.

31%

icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$31,697 Vol.

21%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$36,036 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI is added to the list entitled "Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021" by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Moonshot AI refers to Beijing Moonshot AI Technology Co., Ltd. (also romanized as Beijing Yuezhi Anmian Technology Co., Ltd.), the Beijing-based developer of the Kimi models. Any English translation or romanized rendering of that name, and any list entry that identifies the company by its Moonshot or Kimi brand, will count as naming Moonshot AI. A qualifying addition occurs when Moonshot AI, which was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/), appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary of Moonshot AI, or of a parent company of Moonshot AI, will qualify. A subsidiary means an entity in which Moonshot AI directly or indirectly holds more than 50% of the equity or voting interests. A parent company means an entity that directly or indirectly holds more than 50% of the equity or voting interests of Moonshot AI; minority investors in Moonshot AI are not parent companies. The continued presence on any later list of an entity that was already named on the June 8, 2026 list, including Alibaba Group Holding Limited and Tencent Holdings Limited, will not constitute a qualifying addition. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. A company's status will be determined entirely by its presence on the aforementioned list. If Moonshot AI is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If Moonshot AI has not been added to the list, as defined above, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).The Pentagon's June 2026 update to the Section 1260H list marked the largest expansion yet, adding 65 entities—including Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, NIO, Unitree Robotics, WuXi AppTec, RoboSense, CXMT, and YMTC—for a total of 188 companies tied to China's military-civil fusion strategy. This followed a briefly published February draft that was withdrawn ahead of US-China trade talks, with the final version broadening scrutiny to AI infrastructure, EVs, lidar sensors, humanoid robotics, biotech, and memory chips. Annual updates continue through 2030, and congressional pressure plus supply-chain restrictions effective in 2027 could drive further designations in semiconductors, autonomous systems, and dual-use tech before the June 2027 cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list.

A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition.

Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify.

An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn.

For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify.

If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
Volume
$95,863
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 7:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI is added to the list entitled "Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021" by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Moonshot AI refers to Beijing Moonshot AI Technology Co., Ltd. (also romanized as Beijing Yuezhi Anmian Technology Co., Ltd.), the Beijing-based developer of the Kimi models. Any English translation or romanized rendering of that name, and any list entry that identifies the company by its Moonshot or Kimi brand, will count as naming Moonshot AI. A qualifying addition occurs when Moonshot AI, which was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/), appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary of Moonshot AI, or of a parent company of Moonshot AI, will qualify. A subsidiary means an entity in which Moonshot AI directly or indirectly holds more than 50% of the equity or voting interests. A parent company means an entity that directly or indirectly holds more than 50% of the equity or voting interests of Moonshot AI; minority investors in Moonshot AI are not parent companies. The continued presence on any later list of an entity that was already named on the June 8, 2026 list, including Alibaba Group Holding Limited and Tencent Holdings Limited, will not constitute a qualifying addition. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. A company's status will be determined entirely by its presence on the aforementioned list. If Moonshot AI is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If Moonshot AI has not been added to the list, as defined above, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).The Pentagon's June 2026 update to the Section 1260H list marked the largest expansion yet, adding 65 entities—including Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, NIO, Unitree Robotics, WuXi AppTec, RoboSense, CXMT, and YMTC—for a total of 188 companies tied to China's military-civil fusion strategy. This followed a briefly published February draft that was withdrawn ahead of US-China trade talks, with the final version broadening scrutiny to AI infrastructure, EVs, lidar sensors, humanoid robotics, biotech, and memory chips. Annual updates continue through 2030, and congressional pressure plus supply-chain restrictions effective in 2027 could drive further designations in semiconductors, autonomous systems, and dual-use tech before the June 2027 cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list.

A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition.

Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify.

An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn.

For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify.

If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
Volume
$95,863
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 7:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Moonshot AI" at 35%, followed by "DeepSeek" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?" has generated $95.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?" is "Moonshot AI" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "DeepSeek" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.