Traders view the contest for third-best text arena math performance by end of October as highly uncertain, with a broad field of AI labs clustered near 50% implied probability. Rapid iteration in large language models' mathematical reasoning—driven by specialized fine-tuning, chain-of-thought scaling, and hybrid symbolic-neural approaches—keeps relative rankings fluid among Chinese developers like DeepSeek, Baidu, and Alibaba alongside Western labs such as Anthropic, Google, and Meta. Differentiating factors include access to high-quality math corpora, benchmark-specific optimizations, and inference-time compute, with recent model updates and leaderboard volatility creating sentiment swings. Upcoming releases, capability demonstrations, or new arena evaluations could quickly reorder the field before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Anthropic 33%
StepFun 30%
Bytedance 30%
Xiaomi 29%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
33%
StepFun
30%
Bytedance
30%
Xiaomi
29%
Tencent
29%
28%
DeepSeek
28%
Microsoft
28%
Meituan
27%
Nvidia
27%
Z.ai
26%
Meta
26%
Mistral
26%
Amazon
24%
OpenAI
22%
Moonshot
27%
SpaceXAI
9%
MiniMax
6%
Alibaba
28%
Baidu
30%
Anthropic 33%
StepFun 30%
Bytedance 30%
Xiaomi 29%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$49 Vol.
33%
StepFun
$20 Vol.
30%
Bytedance
$89 Vol.
30%
Xiaomi
$49 Vol.
29%
Tencent
$49 Vol.
29%
$25 Vol.
28%
DeepSeek
$49 Vol.
28%
Microsoft
$72 Vol.
28%
Meituan
$129 Vol.
27%
Nvidia
$76 Vol.
27%
Z.ai
$49 Vol.
26%
Meta
$49 Vol.
26%
Mistral
$122 Vol.
26%
Amazon
$49 Vol.
24%
OpenAI
$49 Vol.
22%
Moonshot
$59 Vol.
27%
SpaceXAI
$49 Vol.
9%
MiniMax
$88 Vol.
6%
Alibaba
$49 Vol.
28%
Baidu
$59 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the contest for third-best text arena math performance by end of October as highly uncertain, with a broad field of AI labs clustered near 50% implied probability. Rapid iteration in large language models' mathematical reasoning—driven by specialized fine-tuning, chain-of-thought scaling, and hybrid symbolic-neural approaches—keeps relative rankings fluid among Chinese developers like DeepSeek, Baidu, and Alibaba alongside Western labs such as Anthropic, Google, and Meta. Differentiating factors include access to high-quality math corpora, benchmark-specific optimizations, and inference-time compute, with recent model updates and leaderboard volatility creating sentiment swings. Upcoming releases, capability demonstrations, or new arena evaluations could quickly reorder the field before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volume
$1,230End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the contest for third-best text arena math performance by end of October as highly uncertain, with a broad field of AI labs clustered near 50% implied probability. Rapid iteration in large language models' mathematical reasoning—driven by specialized fine-tuning, chain-of-thought scaling, and hybrid symbolic-neural approaches—keeps relative rankings fluid among Chinese developers like DeepSeek, Baidu, and Alibaba alongside Western labs such as Anthropic, Google, and Meta. Differentiating factors include access to high-quality math corpora, benchmark-specific optimizations, and inference-time compute, with recent model updates and leaderboard volatility creating sentiment swings. Upcoming releases, capability demonstrations, or new arena evaluations could quickly reorder the field before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,230End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the contest for third-best text arena math performance by end of October as highly uncertain, with a broad field of AI labs clustered near 50% implied probability. Rapid iteration in large language models' mathematical reasoning—driven by specialized fine-tuning, chain-of-thought scaling, and hybrid symbolic-neural approaches—keeps relative rankings fluid among Chinese developers like DeepSeek, Baidu, and Alibaba alongside Western labs such as Anthropic, Google, and Meta. Differentiating factors include access to high-quality math corpora, benchmark-specific optimizations, and inference-time compute, with recent model updates and leaderboard volatility creating sentiment swings. Upcoming releases, capability demonstrations, or new arena evaluations could quickly reorder the field before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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