**Trader sentiment for the third-best lab in Text Arena's mathematical category by end of November reflects a tightly contested field, with no single frontrunner exceeding low-20s implied probability.** Current arena data shows Anthropic's Claude Opus and Fable variants dominating math-specific Elo ratings, yet Chinese labs such as Z.ai (GLM-5 series), Moonshot (Kimi K2/K3), and Xiaomi maintain strong showings on related benchmarks like AIME26 and weighted math scores. OpenAI, Google, and Baidu sit close behind, creating a broad pack where small shifts in model releases, fine-tuning for mathematical reasoning, or arena voting patterns could reorder the middle ranks. The spread across 20+ labs underscores uncertainty around upcoming capability jumps and the impact of open-weight versus proprietary approaches before the November snapshot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAmazon 38%
Anthropic 34%
DeepSeek 31.9%
Google 30%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Amazon
38%
Anthropic
34%
DeepSeek
32%
30%
Z.ai
26%
OpenAI
25%
Tencent
25%
Baidu
25%
Moonshot
25%
Xiaomi
25%
Meituan
24%
Nvidia
24%
Meta
23%
Thinky
19%
StepFun
18%
SpaceXAI
16%
Microsoft
13%
Mistral
12%
Bytedance
10%
Alibaba
4%
MiniMax
24%
Amazon 38%
Anthropic 34%
DeepSeek 31.9%
Google 30%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Amazon
$33 Vol.
38%
Anthropic
$33 Vol.
34%
DeepSeek
$33 Vol.
32%
$33 Vol.
30%
Z.ai
$33 Vol.
26%
OpenAI
$33 Vol.
25%
Tencent
$33 Vol.
25%
Baidu
$33 Vol.
25%
Moonshot
$33 Vol.
25%
Xiaomi
$33 Vol.
25%
Meituan
$33 Vol.
24%
Nvidia
$33 Vol.
24%
Meta
$33 Vol.
23%
Thinky
$33 Vol.
19%
StepFun
$33 Vol.
18%
SpaceXAI
$33 Vol.
16%
Microsoft
$33 Vol.
13%
Mistral
$33 Vol.
12%
Bytedance
$33 Vol.
10%
Alibaba
$33 Vol.
4%
MiniMax
$45 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Trader sentiment for the third-best lab in Text Arena's mathematical category by end of November reflects a tightly contested field, with no single frontrunner exceeding low-20s implied probability.** Current arena data shows Anthropic's Claude Opus and Fable variants dominating math-specific Elo ratings, yet Chinese labs such as Z.ai (GLM-5 series), Moonshot (Kimi K2/K3), and Xiaomi maintain strong showings on related benchmarks like AIME26 and weighted math scores. OpenAI, Google, and Baidu sit close behind, creating a broad pack where small shifts in model releases, fine-tuning for mathematical reasoning, or arena voting patterns could reorder the middle ranks. The spread across 20+ labs underscores uncertainty around upcoming capability jumps and the impact of open-weight versus proprietary approaches before the November snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$695End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Trader sentiment for the third-best lab in Text Arena's mathematical category by end of November reflects a tightly contested field, with no single frontrunner exceeding low-20s implied probability.** Current arena data shows Anthropic's Claude Opus and Fable variants dominating math-specific Elo ratings, yet Chinese labs such as Z.ai (GLM-5 series), Moonshot (Kimi K2/K3), and Xiaomi maintain strong showings on related benchmarks like AIME26 and weighted math scores. OpenAI, Google, and Baidu sit close behind, creating a broad pack where small shifts in model releases, fine-tuning for mathematical reasoning, or arena voting patterns could reorder the middle ranks. The spread across 20+ labs underscores uncertainty around upcoming capability jumps and the impact of open-weight versus proprietary approaches before the November snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$695End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the third-best lab in Text Arena's mathematical category by end of November reflects a tightly contested field, with no single frontrunner exceeding low-20s implied probability.** Current arena data shows Anthropic's Claude Opus and Fable variants dominating math-specific Elo ratings, yet Chinese labs such as Z.ai (GLM-5 series), Moonshot (Kimi K2/K3), and Xiaomi maintain strong showings on related benchmarks like AIME26 and weighted math scores. OpenAI, Google, and Baidu sit close behind, creating a broad pack where small shifts in model releases, fine-tuning for mathematical reasoning, or arena voting patterns could reorder the middle ranks. The spread across 20+ labs underscores uncertainty around upcoming capability jumps and the impact of open-weight versus proprietary approaches before the November snapshot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions