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icon for 3rd richest person on December 31?

3rd richest person on December 31?

icon for 3rd richest person on December 31?

3rd richest person on December 31?

Sergey Brin 47%

Elon Musk 32.4%

Larry Ellison 9.7%

Larry Page 8.1%

Polymarket

$23,481 Vol.

Sergey Brin 47%

Elon Musk 32.4%

Larry Ellison 9.7%

Larry Page 8.1%

Polymarket

$23,481 Vol.

icon for Sergey Brin

Sergey Brin

$371 Vol.

47%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$306 Vol.

32%

icon for Larry Ellison

Larry Ellison

$338 Vol.

18%

icon for Larry Page

Larry Page

$6,605 Vol.

14%

icon for Jensen Huang

Jensen Huang

$709 Vol.

1%

icon for Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett

$799 Vol.

1%

icon for Bernard Arnault

Bernard Arnault

$267 Vol.

1%

icon for Steve Ballmer

Steve Ballmer

$13,218 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mark Zuckerberg

Mark Zuckerberg

$547 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jeff Bezos

Jeff Bezos

$320 Vol.

31%

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Trader consensus positions Sergey Brin as the frontrunner at 46.5% implied probability for third-richest person on December 31, reflecting his current No. 3 spot on Forbes' real-time billionaires list amid Alphabet's blockbuster Q1 2026 earnings, which drove shares to all-time highs above $400 last week and swelled Brin's fortune past $280 billion. Larry Ellison trails at 32.4% buoyed by Oracle's AI-fueled stock surges earlier this year, despite recent dips, while Larry Page's 27.8% accounts for potential Alphabet stake dynamics pushing him toward No. 2 lock-in. Bernard Arnault (27%) and Elon Musk (26.1%) loom as threats via luxury stability and Tesla volatility, respectively; next quarterly reports and market swings through year-end could reshape this tight race.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Volume
$23,481
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Trader consensus positions Sergey Brin as the frontrunner at 46.5% implied probability for third-richest person on December 31, reflecting his current No. 3 spot on Forbes' real-time billionaires list amid Alphabet's blockbuster Q1 2026 earnings, which drove shares to all-time highs above $400 last week and swelled Brin's fortune past $280 billion. Larry Ellison trails at 32.4% buoyed by Oracle's AI-fueled stock surges earlier this year, despite recent dips, while Larry Page's 27.8% accounts for potential Alphabet stake dynamics pushing him toward No. 2 lock-in. Bernard Arnault (27%) and Elon Musk (26.1%) loom as threats via luxury stability and Tesla volatility, respectively; next quarterly reports and market swings through year-end could reshape this tight race.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Volume
$23,481
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"3rd richest person on December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sergey Brin" at 47%, followed by "Elon Musk" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "3rd richest person on December 31?" has generated $23.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "3rd richest person on December 31?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "3rd richest person on December 31?" is "Sergey Brin" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Elon Musk" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "3rd richest person on December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.