SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a roughly $1.77 trillion valuation established a public market cap near $2 trillion, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices explicitly reaffirmed its unchanged eligibility criteria—including GAAP profitability in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters—prior to listing, blocking fast-track entry. The company reported a $4.94 billion loss in 2025 and continues posting negative EPS amid heavy investment in Starship and Starlink expansion, creating a firm barrier under existing rules. This policy stance, combined with the standard seasoning period and investable float thresholds, underpins the 96.9% market-implied probability of no 2026 addition. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt swing to sustained quarterly profits or an unforeseen methodology adjustment before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$27,906 Vol.
$27,906 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$27,906 Vol.
$27,906 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a roughly $1.77 trillion valuation established a public market cap near $2 trillion, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices explicitly reaffirmed its unchanged eligibility criteria—including GAAP profitability in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters—prior to listing, blocking fast-track entry. The company reported a $4.94 billion loss in 2025 and continues posting negative EPS amid heavy investment in Starship and Starlink expansion, creating a firm barrier under existing rules. This policy stance, combined with the standard seasoning period and investable float thresholds, underpins the 96.9% market-implied probability of no 2026 addition. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt swing to sustained quarterly profits or an unforeseen methodology adjustment before December 31.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ET
Volume
$27,906End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a roughly $1.77 trillion valuation established a public market cap near $2 trillion, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices explicitly reaffirmed its unchanged eligibility criteria—including GAAP profitability in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters—prior to listing, blocking fast-track entry. The company reported a $4.94 billion loss in 2025 and continues posting negative EPS amid heavy investment in Starship and Starlink expansion, creating a firm barrier under existing rules. This policy stance, combined with the standard seasoning period and investable float thresholds, underpins the 96.9% market-implied probability of no 2026 addition. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt swing to sustained quarterly profits or an unforeseen methodology adjustment before December 31.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Volume
$27,906End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a roughly $1.77 trillion valuation established a public market cap near $2 trillion, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices explicitly reaffirmed its unchanged eligibility criteria—including GAAP profitability in the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters—prior to listing, blocking fast-track entry. The company reported a $4.94 billion loss in 2025 and continues posting negative EPS amid heavy investment in Starship and Starlink expansion, creating a firm barrier under existing rules. This policy stance, combined with the standard seasoning period and investable float thresholds, underpins the 96.9% market-implied probability of no 2026 addition. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt swing to sustained quarterly profits or an unforeseen methodology adjustment before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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