Recent secondary tender offers have valued Stripe at $159 billion as of February 2026, supported by $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume and profitability, yet co-founders continue to emphasize no near-term IPO plans and the advantages of remaining private. These factors underpin the closely matched market-implied odds, with the 44% probability on a closing market cap below $150 billion and 43% on no IPO by end-2027 reflecting sustained preference for tender-based liquidity over public listing. At the same time, the 43% chance assigned to a $500 billion-plus outcome captures potential upside from revenue growth and fintech sector multiples if listing proceeds, highlighting uncertainty around timing, valuation benchmarks, and macroeconomic conditions influencing IPO windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$250B-$300B 70%
<$150B 45%
$500B+ 44%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 44%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
45%
$150B-$200B
36%
$200B-$250B
9%
$250B-$300B
70%
$300B-$350B
-
$350B-$400B
38%
$400B-$450B
39%
$450B-$500B
22%
$500B+
44%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
44%
$250B-$300B 70%
<$150B 45%
$500B+ 44%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 44%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
$50 Vol.
45%
$150B-$200B
$69 Vol.
36%
$200B-$250B
$70 Vol.
9%
$250B-$300B
$94 Vol.
70%
$300B-$350B
$94 Vol.
-
$350B-$400B
$81 Vol.
38%
$400B-$450B
$94 Vol.
39%
$450B-$500B
$73 Vol.
22%
$500B+
$47 Vol.
44%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$63 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Recent secondary tender offers have valued Stripe at $159 billion as of February 2026, supported by $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume and profitability, yet co-founders continue to emphasize no near-term IPO plans and the advantages of remaining private. These factors underpin the closely matched market-implied odds, with the 44% probability on a closing market cap below $150 billion and 43% on no IPO by end-2027 reflecting sustained preference for tender-based liquidity over public listing. At the same time, the 43% chance assigned to a $500 billion-plus outcome captures potential upside from revenue growth and fintech sector multiples if listing proceeds, highlighting uncertainty around timing, valuation benchmarks, and macroeconomic conditions influencing IPO windows.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$735End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Recent secondary tender offers have valued Stripe at $159 billion as of February 2026, supported by $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume and profitability, yet co-founders continue to emphasize no near-term IPO plans and the advantages of remaining private. These factors underpin the closely matched market-implied odds, with the 44% probability on a closing market cap below $150 billion and 43% on no IPO by end-2027 reflecting sustained preference for tender-based liquidity over public listing. At the same time, the 43% chance assigned to a $500 billion-plus outcome captures potential upside from revenue growth and fintech sector multiples if listing proceeds, highlighting uncertainty around timing, valuation benchmarks, and macroeconomic conditions influencing IPO windows.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$735End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent secondary tender offers have valued Stripe at $159 billion as of February 2026, supported by $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume and profitability, yet co-founders continue to emphasize no near-term IPO plans and the advantages of remaining private. These factors underpin the closely matched market-implied odds, with the 44% probability on a closing market cap below $150 billion and 43% on no IPO by end-2027 reflecting sustained preference for tender-based liquidity over public listing. At the same time, the 43% chance assigned to a $500 billion-plus outcome captures potential upside from revenue growth and fintech sector multiples if listing proceeds, highlighting uncertainty around timing, valuation benchmarks, and macroeconomic conditions influencing IPO windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions