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icon for Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?

Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?

icon for Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?

Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?

Goldman Sachs 85%

Morgan Stanley 14%

Bank of America 1.0%

Wells Fargo <1%

Polymarket

$50,388 Vol.

Goldman Sachs 85%

Morgan Stanley 14%

Bank of America 1.0%

Wells Fargo <1%

Polymarket

$50,388 Vol.

icon for Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs

$13,266 Vol.

85%

icon for Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley

$8,600 Vol.

14%

icon for Bank of America

Bank of America

$2,483 Vol.

1%

icon for Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo

$3,234 Vol.

<1%

icon for Citigroup

Citigroup

$2,649 Vol.

<1%

icon for Barclays

Barclays

$3,599 Vol.

<1%

icon for UBS

UBS

$3,544 Vol.

<1%

icon for JPMorgan

JPMorgan

$3,929 Vol.

<1%

icon for Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank

$9,084 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Goldman Sachs holds the strongest market-implied odds as lead underwriter for OpenAI’s IPO due to its recent selection as lead-left bookrunner on the record-setting SpaceX offering and its established dominance in major technology debuts. OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC in early June 2026 after collaborating primarily with Goldman and Morgan Stanley as top bookrunners, though the critical lead-left designation on the prospectus remains open amid competition between the two banks. Morgan Stanley’s lower implied probability reflects its comparable but secondary positioning in both OpenAI and Anthropic preparations, while other firms appear limited to supporting roles. Trader sentiment aligns with Goldman’s edge in allocation influence and recent execution track record ahead of a potential 2027 listing for the artificial-intelligence leader.

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”

If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$50,388
End Date
Dec 31, 2027
Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Goldman Sachs holds the strongest market-implied odds as lead underwriter for OpenAI’s IPO due to its recent selection as lead-left bookrunner on the record-setting SpaceX offering and its established dominance in major technology debuts. OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC in early June 2026 after collaborating primarily with Goldman and Morgan Stanley as top bookrunners, though the critical lead-left designation on the prospectus remains open amid competition between the two banks. Morgan Stanley’s lower implied probability reflects its comparable but secondary positioning in both OpenAI and Anthropic preparations, while other firms appear limited to supporting roles. Trader sentiment aligns with Goldman’s edge in allocation influence and recent execution track record ahead of a potential 2027 listing for the artificial-intelligence leader.

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”

If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$50,388
End Date
Dec 31, 2027
Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?

68%
icon for Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

81%
icon for OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?

95%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Goldman Sachs" at 85%, followed by "Morgan Stanley" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?" has generated $50.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?" is "Goldman Sachs" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Morgan Stanley" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.