Moonshot AI's rapid cadence of frontier-scale releases anchors trader sentiment on the next Kimi K model, following Kimi K3's July 16 launch as a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE system with native vision, 1M-token context, and Kimi Delta Attention architecture. K3's strong coding benchmarks and open-weight availability by July 27, despite higher pricing than prior versions, underscore Moonshot's push to match U.S. leaders like Claude Fable 5 while expanding agentic capabilities. Competitive pressure from Chinese peers and surging API demand, which briefly paused signups, supports expectations of a K3.1 or K4 iteration by late 2026. Key catalysts include any official announcements on scaling efficiency gains or new multimodal features ahead of year-end resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$15,980 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
September 15, 2026
5%
September 30, 2026
82%
December 31, 2026
99%
$15,980 Vol.
September 15, 2026
$1,921 Vol.
5%
September 30, 2026
$9,944 Vol.
82%
December 31, 2026
$2,188 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid cadence of frontier-scale releases anchors trader sentiment on the next Kimi K model, following Kimi K3's July 16 launch as a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE system with native vision, 1M-token context, and Kimi Delta Attention architecture. K3's strong coding benchmarks and open-weight availability by July 27, despite higher pricing than prior versions, underscore Moonshot's push to match U.S. leaders like Claude Fable 5 while expanding agentic capabilities. Competitive pressure from Chinese peers and surging API demand, which briefly paused signups, supports expectations of a K3.1 or K4 iteration by late 2026. Key catalysts include any official announcements on scaling efficiency gains or new multimodal features ahead of year-end resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Volume
$15,980End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid cadence of frontier-scale releases anchors trader sentiment on the next Kimi K model, following Kimi K3's July 16 launch as a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE system with native vision, 1M-token context, and Kimi Delta Attention architecture. K3's strong coding benchmarks and open-weight availability by July 27, despite higher pricing than prior versions, underscore Moonshot's push to match U.S. leaders like Claude Fable 5 while expanding agentic capabilities. Competitive pressure from Chinese peers and surging API demand, which briefly paused signups, supports expectations of a K3.1 or K4 iteration by late 2026. Key catalysts include any official announcements on scaling efficiency gains or new multimodal features ahead of year-end resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$15,980End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's rapid cadence of frontier-scale releases anchors trader sentiment on the next Kimi K model, following Kimi K3's July 16 launch as a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE system with native vision, 1M-token context, and Kimi Delta Attention architecture. K3's strong coding benchmarks and open-weight availability by July 27, despite higher pricing than prior versions, underscore Moonshot's push to match U.S. leaders like Claude Fable 5 while expanding agentic capabilities. Competitive pressure from Chinese peers and surging API demand, which briefly paused signups, supports expectations of a K3.1 or K4 iteration by late 2026. Key catalysts include any official announcements on scaling efficiency gains or new multimodal features ahead of year-end resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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