**Trader sentiment reflects intense parity among leading labs, with no single company pulling decisively ahead on image-to-video benchmarks as of late September 2026.** MiniMax’s H3 series, including post-trained H3 Max variants topping Artificial Analysis I2V leaderboards, competes closely with Google’s Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash on photorealism and native audio synchronization, while ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0 excels in prompt adherence, multi-reference consistency, and dynamic camera work. Kling (Kuaishou) stands out for character identity preservation and motion physics, and Alibaba’s HappyHorse/Wan models deliver strong value on resolution and editing capabilities. Frequent mid-2026 releases, benchmark volatility, and differences in access, pricing, and audio integration keep probabilities fragmented, with traders weighting demonstrated I2V strengths over marketing claims ahead of the October resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMiniMax 49%
Google 45%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 4.4%
ByteDance <1%
$12,134 Vol.
$12,134 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
MiniMax
49%
45%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
4%
ByteDance
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Black Forest Labs
<1%
Shengshu
<1%
KlingAI
<1%
Luma AI
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Pixverse
<1%
Runway
<1%
Pika
<1%
Lightricks
<1%
Pruna
<1%
MiniMax 49%
Google 45%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 4.4%
ByteDance <1%
$12,134 Vol.
$12,134 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
MiniMax
$3,341 Vol.
49%
$2,120 Vol.
45%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$830 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$606 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$489 Vol.
<1%
Black Forest Labs
$438 Vol.
<1%
Shengshu
$418 Vol.
<1%
KlingAI
$431 Vol.
<1%
Luma AI
$378 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$432 Vol.
<1%
Pixverse
$398 Vol.
<1%
Runway
$553 Vol.
<1%
Pika
$548 Vol.
<1%
Lightricks
$592 Vol.
<1%
Pruna
$559 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Trader sentiment reflects intense parity among leading labs, with no single company pulling decisively ahead on image-to-video benchmarks as of late September 2026.** MiniMax’s H3 series, including post-trained H3 Max variants topping Artificial Analysis I2V leaderboards, competes closely with Google’s Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash on photorealism and native audio synchronization, while ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0 excels in prompt adherence, multi-reference consistency, and dynamic camera work. Kling (Kuaishou) stands out for character identity preservation and motion physics, and Alibaba’s HappyHorse/Wan models deliver strong value on resolution and editing capabilities. Frequent mid-2026 releases, benchmark volatility, and differences in access, pricing, and audio integration keep probabilities fragmented, with traders weighting demonstrated I2V strengths over marketing claims ahead of the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$12,134End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Trader sentiment reflects intense parity among leading labs, with no single company pulling decisively ahead on image-to-video benchmarks as of late September 2026.** MiniMax’s H3 series, including post-trained H3 Max variants topping Artificial Analysis I2V leaderboards, competes closely with Google’s Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash on photorealism and native audio synchronization, while ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0 excels in prompt adherence, multi-reference consistency, and dynamic camera work. Kling (Kuaishou) stands out for character identity preservation and motion physics, and Alibaba’s HappyHorse/Wan models deliver strong value on resolution and editing capabilities. Frequent mid-2026 releases, benchmark volatility, and differences in access, pricing, and audio integration keep probabilities fragmented, with traders weighting demonstrated I2V strengths over marketing claims ahead of the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$12,134End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment reflects intense parity among leading labs, with no single company pulling decisively ahead on image-to-video benchmarks as of late September 2026.** MiniMax’s H3 series, including post-trained H3 Max variants topping Artificial Analysis I2V leaderboards, competes closely with Google’s Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash on photorealism and native audio synchronization, while ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0 excels in prompt adherence, multi-reference consistency, and dynamic camera work. Kling (Kuaishou) stands out for character identity preservation and motion physics, and Alibaba’s HappyHorse/Wan models deliver strong value on resolution and editing capabilities. Frequent mid-2026 releases, benchmark volatility, and differences in access, pricing, and audio integration keep probabilities fragmented, with traders weighting demonstrated I2V strengths over marketing claims ahead of the October resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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