Anthropic’s commanding 92% market-implied odds reflect its recent public disclosure that Claude models now lead 26% of internal AI R&D tasks—up sharply from under 1% earlier in 2026—while overseeing roughly 30,000 concurrent agents with extremely low intervention rates. Traders are also pricing in Claude Fable 5.1’s top ranking on agentic benchmarks, the early-September release of an open-source commerce-agents blueprint, and expanded enterprise safeguards tailored for long-running autonomous workflows. These verified capability and deployment milestones have created strong consensus around Anthropic’s edge in reliable, multi-step agent performance. A late-month model update from OpenAI or a surprise benchmark reversal could still narrow the gap before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 92%
OpenAI 6.2%
Microsoft <1%
Google <1%
$223,979 Vol.
$223,979 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
92%
OpenAI
6%
Microsoft
<1%
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 92%
OpenAI 6.2%
Microsoft <1%
Google <1%
$223,979 Vol.
$223,979 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$57,522 Vol.
92%
OpenAI
$44,328 Vol.
6%
Microsoft
$9,214 Vol.
<1%
$9,251 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$7,614 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$9,159 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$9,311 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$7,938 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$8,766 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$7,494 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$539 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$7,551 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,730 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$7,427 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$7,554 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$7,543 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$7,538 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$7,498 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s commanding 92% market-implied odds reflect its recent public disclosure that Claude models now lead 26% of internal AI R&D tasks—up sharply from under 1% earlier in 2026—while overseeing roughly 30,000 concurrent agents with extremely low intervention rates. Traders are also pricing in Claude Fable 5.1’s top ranking on agentic benchmarks, the early-September release of an open-source commerce-agents blueprint, and expanded enterprise safeguards tailored for long-running autonomous workflows. These verified capability and deployment milestones have created strong consensus around Anthropic’s edge in reliable, multi-step agent performance. A late-month model update from OpenAI or a surprise benchmark reversal could still narrow the gap before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
Volume
$223,979End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s commanding 92% market-implied odds reflect its recent public disclosure that Claude models now lead 26% of internal AI R&D tasks—up sharply from under 1% earlier in 2026—while overseeing roughly 30,000 concurrent agents with extremely low intervention rates. Traders are also pricing in Claude Fable 5.1’s top ranking on agentic benchmarks, the early-September release of an open-source commerce-agents blueprint, and expanded enterprise safeguards tailored for long-running autonomous workflows. These verified capability and deployment milestones have created strong consensus around Anthropic’s edge in reliable, multi-step agent performance. A late-month model update from OpenAI or a surprise benchmark reversal could still narrow the gap before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$223,979End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s commanding 92% market-implied odds reflect its recent public disclosure that Claude models now lead 26% of internal AI R&D tasks—up sharply from under 1% earlier in 2026—while overseeing roughly 30,000 concurrent agents with extremely low intervention rates. Traders are also pricing in Claude Fable 5.1’s top ranking on agentic benchmarks, the early-September release of an open-source commerce-agents blueprint, and expanded enterprise safeguards tailored for long-running autonomous workflows. These verified capability and deployment milestones have created strong consensus around Anthropic’s edge in reliable, multi-step agent performance. A late-month model update from OpenAI or a surprise benchmark reversal could still narrow the gap before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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