The closely matched probabilities across late September and early October reflect trader uncertainty over OpenAI’s cadence for the next GPT Luna (5.7+) update to its cost-efficient, high-volume inference tier. Following the July 9 general availability of GPT-5.6 Luna alongside Sol and Terra, OpenAI has maintained rapid point-release cycles focused on pricing cuts, expanded access, and inference optimizations rather than flagship capability jumps. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google DeepMind models, combined with OpenAI’s emphasis on scaling affordable tiers for broader adoption, supports the market’s tight clustering, while the absence of official timelines or confirmed benchmarks leaves room for slips or surprise announcements around developer events or internal milestones.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOctober 12 26%
September 23 26%
September 29 25%
October 3 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
On or prior to September 22
12%
September 23
26%
September 24
15%
September 25
13%
September 26
8%
September 27
7%
September 28
25%
September 29
25%
September 30
15%
October 1
15%
October 2
9%
October 3
25%
October 4
23%
October 5
24%
October 6
8%
October 7
13%
October 8
10%
October 9
23%
October 10
7%
October 11
13%
October 12
26%
October 13
9%
October 14
13%
October 15
9%
No release by October 15
16%
October 12 26%
September 23 26%
September 29 25%
October 3 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
On or prior to September 22
$551 Vol.
12%
September 23
$30 Vol.
26%
September 24
$30 Vol.
15%
September 25
$30 Vol.
13%
September 26
$542 Vol.
8%
September 27
$481 Vol.
7%
September 28
$30 Vol.
25%
September 29
$30 Vol.
25%
September 30
$30 Vol.
15%
October 1
$30 Vol.
15%
October 2
$30 Vol.
9%
October 3
$30 Vol.
25%
October 4
$80 Vol.
23%
October 5
$30 Vol.
24%
October 6
$30 Vol.
8%
October 7
$30 Vol.
13%
October 8
$30 Vol.
10%
October 9
$30 Vol.
23%
October 10
$30 Vol.
7%
October 11
$30 Vol.
13%
October 12
$30 Vol.
26%
October 13
$30 Vol.
9%
October 14
$30 Vol.
13%
October 15
$30 Vol.
9%
No release by October 15
$30 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Luna model (5.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Luna" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Luna" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Luna, GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched probabilities across late September and early October reflect trader uncertainty over OpenAI’s cadence for the next GPT Luna (5.7+) update to its cost-efficient, high-volume inference tier. Following the July 9 general availability of GPT-5.6 Luna alongside Sol and Terra, OpenAI has maintained rapid point-release cycles focused on pricing cuts, expanded access, and inference optimizations rather than flagship capability jumps. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google DeepMind models, combined with OpenAI’s emphasis on scaling affordable tiers for broader adoption, supports the market’s tight clustering, while the absence of official timelines or confirmed benchmarks leaves room for slips or surprise announcements around developer events or internal milestones.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Luna model (5.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Luna" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Luna" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Luna, GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Luna" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Luna" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Luna, GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 5:21 PM ET
Volume
$2,274End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 5:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Luna model (5.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Luna" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Luna" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Luna, GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched probabilities across late September and early October reflect trader uncertainty over OpenAI’s cadence for the next GPT Luna (5.7+) update to its cost-efficient, high-volume inference tier. Following the July 9 general availability of GPT-5.6 Luna alongside Sol and Terra, OpenAI has maintained rapid point-release cycles focused on pricing cuts, expanded access, and inference optimizations rather than flagship capability jumps. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google DeepMind models, combined with OpenAI’s emphasis on scaling affordable tiers for broader adoption, supports the market’s tight clustering, while the absence of official timelines or confirmed benchmarks leaves room for slips or surprise announcements around developer events or internal milestones.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Luna model (5.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Luna" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Luna" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Luna, GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Luna" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Luna" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Luna, GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,274End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 5:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities across late September and early October reflect trader uncertainty over OpenAI’s cadence for the next GPT Luna (5.7+) update to its cost-efficient, high-volume inference tier. Following the July 9 general availability of GPT-5.6 Luna alongside Sol and Terra, OpenAI has maintained rapid point-release cycles focused on pricing cuts, expanded access, and inference optimizations rather than flagship capability jumps. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google DeepMind models, combined with OpenAI’s emphasis on scaling affordable tiers for broader adoption, supports the market’s tight clustering, while the absence of official timelines or confirmed benchmarks leaves room for slips or surprise announcements around developer events or internal milestones.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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