OpenAI’s recent September 8 launch of ChatGPT Images 2.5 has driven the market’s strong 80.5% implied probability for the company, as the update delivers sharper details, richer textures, up to 50% lower latency, and more reliable multi-turn editing with new tools like Sketch for reference drawings. Independent leaderboards such as LMArena and Artificial Analysis now rank its GPT-Image-2.5 variants at the top, ahead of close competitors including Microsoft’s MAI-Image-2.6. This momentum reflects OpenAI’s integrated ChatGPT distribution and API reach, though traders note that rapid iteration by Google’s Nano Banana models or specialized players like Recraft could still shift sentiment before the late-November resolution if they demonstrate superior benchmarks or features in the interim.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 81%
Google 4.0%
Recraft 4.0%
Reve 3.8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
81%
4%
Recraft
4%
Reve
4%
Alibaba
4%
Ideogram
4%
ByteDance
3%
Tencent
3%
Microsoft AI
3%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Luma AI
1%
Black Forest Labs
1%
OpenAI 81%
Google 4.0%
Recraft 4.0%
Reve 3.8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
$1,853 Vol.
81%
$106 Vol.
4%
Recraft
$93 Vol.
4%
Reve
$138 Vol.
4%
Alibaba
$114 Vol.
4%
Ideogram
$106 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$269 Vol.
3%
Tencent
$468 Vol.
3%
Microsoft AI
$146 Vol.
3%
Meta
$108 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$302 Vol.
1%
Luma AI
$106 Vol.
1%
Black Forest Labs
$106 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent September 8 launch of ChatGPT Images 2.5 has driven the market’s strong 80.5% implied probability for the company, as the update delivers sharper details, richer textures, up to 50% lower latency, and more reliable multi-turn editing with new tools like Sketch for reference drawings. Independent leaderboards such as LMArena and Artificial Analysis now rank its GPT-Image-2.5 variants at the top, ahead of close competitors including Microsoft’s MAI-Image-2.6. This momentum reflects OpenAI’s integrated ChatGPT distribution and API reach, though traders note that rapid iteration by Google’s Nano Banana models or specialized players like Recraft could still shift sentiment before the late-November resolution if they demonstrate superior benchmarks or features in the interim.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$3,917End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent September 8 launch of ChatGPT Images 2.5 has driven the market’s strong 80.5% implied probability for the company, as the update delivers sharper details, richer textures, up to 50% lower latency, and more reliable multi-turn editing with new tools like Sketch for reference drawings. Independent leaderboards such as LMArena and Artificial Analysis now rank its GPT-Image-2.5 variants at the top, ahead of close competitors including Microsoft’s MAI-Image-2.6. This momentum reflects OpenAI’s integrated ChatGPT distribution and API reach, though traders note that rapid iteration by Google’s Nano Banana models or specialized players like Recraft could still shift sentiment before the late-November resolution if they demonstrate superior benchmarks or features in the interim.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,917End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s recent September 8 launch of ChatGPT Images 2.5 has driven the market’s strong 80.5% implied probability for the company, as the update delivers sharper details, richer textures, up to 50% lower latency, and more reliable multi-turn editing with new tools like Sketch for reference drawings. Independent leaderboards such as LMArena and Artificial Analysis now rank its GPT-Image-2.5 variants at the top, ahead of close competitors including Microsoft’s MAI-Image-2.6. This momentum reflects OpenAI’s integrated ChatGPT distribution and API reach, though traders note that rapid iteration by Google’s Nano Banana models or specialized players like Recraft could still shift sentiment before the late-November resolution if they demonstrate superior benchmarks or features in the interim.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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