OpenAI's dominant 82.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of October reflects trader consensus on its established edge in large language model development, agentic frameworks, and ecosystem integrations that outpace most rivals. Lower odds for Anthropic at 13.5%, Google at 2.3%, and others signal a perceived gap in demonstrated capabilities and deployment scale, with markets pricing in OpenAI's consistent benchmark leadership and user adoption trends. As resolution nears, any new model releases, safety evaluations, or competitive announcements from labs could shift sentiment, though the current pricing indicates limited near-term disruption expected in the next six weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 83%
Anthropic 14%
Moonshot 2.5%
SpaceXAI 2.2%
$35,714 Vol.
$35,714 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
83%
Anthropic
14%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
2%
2%
Meituan
1%
Amazon
1%
Baidu
1%
Z.ai
1%
MiniMax
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 83%
Anthropic 14%
Moonshot 2.5%
SpaceXAI 2.2%
$35,714 Vol.
$35,714 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
$14,042 Vol.
83%
Anthropic
$4,613 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$7,725 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$705 Vol.
2%
$1,527 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$518 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$599 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$591 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$555 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$626 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$548 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$516 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$638 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$473 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$553 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$558 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$526 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$400 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's dominant 82.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of October reflects trader consensus on its established edge in large language model development, agentic frameworks, and ecosystem integrations that outpace most rivals. Lower odds for Anthropic at 13.5%, Google at 2.3%, and others signal a perceived gap in demonstrated capabilities and deployment scale, with markets pricing in OpenAI's consistent benchmark leadership and user adoption trends. As resolution nears, any new model releases, safety evaluations, or competitive announcements from labs could shift sentiment, though the current pricing indicates limited near-term disruption expected in the next six weeks.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volume
$35,714End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's dominant 82.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of October reflects trader consensus on its established edge in large language model development, agentic frameworks, and ecosystem integrations that outpace most rivals. Lower odds for Anthropic at 13.5%, Google at 2.3%, and others signal a perceived gap in demonstrated capabilities and deployment scale, with markets pricing in OpenAI's consistent benchmark leadership and user adoption trends. As resolution nears, any new model releases, safety evaluations, or competitive announcements from labs could shift sentiment, though the current pricing indicates limited near-term disruption expected in the next six weeks.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$35,714End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's dominant 82.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of October reflects trader consensus on its established edge in large language model development, agentic frameworks, and ecosystem integrations that outpace most rivals. Lower odds for Anthropic at 13.5%, Google at 2.3%, and others signal a perceived gap in demonstrated capabilities and deployment scale, with markets pricing in OpenAI's consistent benchmark leadership and user adoption trends. As resolution nears, any new model releases, safety evaluations, or competitive announcements from labs could shift sentiment, though the current pricing indicates limited near-term disruption expected in the next six weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions