Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 56.5% for second-best AI agent lab by end of November, reflecting its recent Claude model updates and agentic tooling advancements that have strengthened competitive positioning against OpenAI at 35.5%. The broad cluster of outcomes near 50% or below, including ByteDance, Mistral, Meta, and others, underscores high uncertainty in a rapidly evolving landscape where large language model capabilities, benchmark performance, and real-world agent deployment timelines remain fluid. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, and potential partnerships that could shift user adoption and ecosystem momentum before resolution. Traders appear to weigh demonstrated technical progress more heavily than speculative announcements amid typical product slippage risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 29%
Anthropic 26%
Xiaomi 25%
Z.ai 24%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
29%
Anthropic
37%
Xiaomi
25%
Z.ai
24%
Microsoft
24%
Alibaba
23%
DeepSeek
23%
Nvidia
16%
Mistral
14%
SpaceXAI
14%
Meta
14%
14%
Moonshot
14%
MiniMax
14%
Tencent
14%
ByteDance
13%
Meituan
13%
Amazon
8%
Baidu
7%
OpenAI 29%
Anthropic 26%
Xiaomi 25%
Z.ai 24%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
$70 Vol.
29%
Anthropic
$34 Vol.
37%
Xiaomi
$14 Vol.
25%
Z.ai
$14 Vol.
24%
Microsoft
$14 Vol.
24%
Alibaba
$14 Vol.
23%
DeepSeek
$14 Vol.
23%
Nvidia
$14 Vol.
16%
Mistral
$14 Vol.
14%
SpaceXAI
$14 Vol.
14%
Meta
$14 Vol.
14%
$14 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$14 Vol.
14%
MiniMax
$14 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$14 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$14 Vol.
13%
Meituan
$14 Vol.
13%
Amazon
$14 Vol.
8%
Baidu
$14 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 56.5% for second-best AI agent lab by end of November, reflecting its recent Claude model updates and agentic tooling advancements that have strengthened competitive positioning against OpenAI at 35.5%. The broad cluster of outcomes near 50% or below, including ByteDance, Mistral, Meta, and others, underscores high uncertainty in a rapidly evolving landscape where large language model capabilities, benchmark performance, and real-world agent deployment timelines remain fluid. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, and potential partnerships that could shift user adoption and ecosystem momentum before resolution. Traders appear to weigh demonstrated technical progress more heavily than speculative announcements amid typical product slippage risks.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$340End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 56.5% for second-best AI agent lab by end of November, reflecting its recent Claude model updates and agentic tooling advancements that have strengthened competitive positioning against OpenAI at 35.5%. The broad cluster of outcomes near 50% or below, including ByteDance, Mistral, Meta, and others, underscores high uncertainty in a rapidly evolving landscape where large language model capabilities, benchmark performance, and real-world agent deployment timelines remain fluid. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, and potential partnerships that could shift user adoption and ecosystem momentum before resolution. Traders appear to weigh demonstrated technical progress more heavily than speculative announcements amid typical product slippage risks.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$340End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 56.5% for second-best AI agent lab by end of November, reflecting its recent Claude model updates and agentic tooling advancements that have strengthened competitive positioning against OpenAI at 35.5%. The broad cluster of outcomes near 50% or below, including ByteDance, Mistral, Meta, and others, underscores high uncertainty in a rapidly evolving landscape where large language model capabilities, benchmark performance, and real-world agent deployment timelines remain fluid. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, and potential partnerships that could shift user adoption and ecosystem momentum before resolution. Traders appear to weigh demonstrated technical progress more heavily than speculative announcements amid typical product slippage risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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