The closely matched probabilities around 50% for numerous unnamed contenders and 26% for Anthropic, Meta, and Google highlight the absence of a clear second-place AI lab, with traders viewing the field as fluid and driven by rapid capability gains. Recent model releases, scaling efforts, and benchmark improvements from several labs have kept sentiment balanced, while OpenAI's lower 13% odds reflect broad consensus it will likely lead. Key differentiators include demonstrated performance on technical benchmarks, developer ecosystem growth, talent retention, and regulatory positioning ahead of the November resolution. Upcoming earnings, conference announcements, and new capability demonstrations could quickly shift trader consensus in this competitive landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 26%
Google 26%
Xiaomi 26%
SpaceXAI 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
26%
26%
Xiaomi
26%
SpaceXAI
26%
Amazon
26%
Tencent
26%
Alibaba
26%
OpenAI
26%
Baidu
26%
Z.ai
26%
Nvidia
26%
Mistral
26%
StepFun
26%
Meituan
25%
Microsoft
14%
Meta
14%
Thinky
14%
MiniMax
14%
ByteDance
14%
Moonshot
13%
DeepSeek
13%
Anthropic 26%
Google 26%
Xiaomi 26%
SpaceXAI 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
26%
$0 Vol.
26%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
26%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
26%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
26%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
26%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
26%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
26%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
26%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
26%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
26%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
26%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
26%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
25%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
14%
Meta
$0 Vol.
14%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
14%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
13%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 50% for numerous unnamed contenders and 26% for Anthropic, Meta, and Google highlight the absence of a clear second-place AI lab, with traders viewing the field as fluid and driven by rapid capability gains. Recent model releases, scaling efforts, and benchmark improvements from several labs have kept sentiment balanced, while OpenAI's lower 13% odds reflect broad consensus it will likely lead. Key differentiators include demonstrated performance on technical benchmarks, developer ecosystem growth, talent retention, and regulatory positioning ahead of the November resolution. Upcoming earnings, conference announcements, and new capability demonstrations could quickly shift trader consensus in this competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 50% for numerous unnamed contenders and 26% for Anthropic, Meta, and Google highlight the absence of a clear second-place AI lab, with traders viewing the field as fluid and driven by rapid capability gains. Recent model releases, scaling efforts, and benchmark improvements from several labs have kept sentiment balanced, while OpenAI's lower 13% odds reflect broad consensus it will likely lead. Key differentiators include demonstrated performance on technical benchmarks, developer ecosystem growth, talent retention, and regulatory positioning ahead of the November resolution. Upcoming earnings, conference announcements, and new capability demonstrations could quickly shift trader consensus in this competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities around 50% for numerous unnamed contenders and 26% for Anthropic, Meta, and Google highlight the absence of a clear second-place AI lab, with traders viewing the field as fluid and driven by rapid capability gains. Recent model releases, scaling efforts, and benchmark improvements from several labs have kept sentiment balanced, while OpenAI's lower 13% odds reflect broad consensus it will likely lead. Key differentiators include demonstrated performance on technical benchmarks, developer ecosystem growth, talent retention, and regulatory positioning ahead of the November resolution. Upcoming earnings, conference announcements, and new capability demonstrations could quickly shift trader consensus in this competitive landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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