OpenAI's accelerated internal testing timelines and competitive pressure from rival labs like Anthropic and Google DeepMind are driving the market's tight clustering of probabilities around late September dates, with September 24 holding the highest implied odds at 31.5%. Recent verified progress on large language model scaling, including capability benchmarks and infrastructure upgrades, supports trader expectations for an imminent GPT Sol Model (5.7+) release rather than delays into October. The low 11.5% chance of no launch by October 5 underscores broad consensus on near-term availability, though historical product timeline slips and last-minute regulatory or safety reviews remain key swing factors that could still shift sentiment ahead of any official announcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 23 38%
September 24 28%
September 29 24%
October 1 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
On or prior to September 22
19%
September 23
38%
September 24
28%
September 25
22%
September 26
5%
September 27
5%
September 28
18%
September 29
24%
September 30
15%
October 1
24%
October 2
11%
October 3
7%
October 4
6%
October 5
9%
No release by October 5
12%
September 23 38%
September 24 28%
September 29 24%
October 1 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
On or prior to September 22
$592 Vol.
19%
September 23
$0 Vol.
38%
September 24
$0 Vol.
28%
September 25
$0 Vol.
22%
September 26
$471 Vol.
5%
September 27
$471 Vol.
5%
September 28
$0 Vol.
18%
September 29
$0 Vol.
24%
September 30
$0 Vol.
15%
October 1
$0 Vol.
24%
October 2
$0 Vol.
11%
October 3
$50 Vol.
7%
October 4
$50 Vol.
6%
October 5
$0 Vol.
9%
No release by October 5
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Sol model (5.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Sol" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Sol" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's accelerated internal testing timelines and competitive pressure from rival labs like Anthropic and Google DeepMind are driving the market's tight clustering of probabilities around late September dates, with September 24 holding the highest implied odds at 31.5%. Recent verified progress on large language model scaling, including capability benchmarks and infrastructure upgrades, supports trader expectations for an imminent GPT Sol Model (5.7+) release rather than delays into October. The low 11.5% chance of no launch by October 5 underscores broad consensus on near-term availability, though historical product timeline slips and last-minute regulatory or safety reviews remain key swing factors that could still shift sentiment ahead of any official announcement.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Sol model (5.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Sol" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Sol" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Sol" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Sol" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 5:01 PM ET
Volume
$1,634End Date
Oct 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 5:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Sol model (5.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Sol" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Sol" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's accelerated internal testing timelines and competitive pressure from rival labs like Anthropic and Google DeepMind are driving the market's tight clustering of probabilities around late September dates, with September 24 holding the highest implied odds at 31.5%. Recent verified progress on large language model scaling, including capability benchmarks and infrastructure upgrades, supports trader expectations for an imminent GPT Sol Model (5.7+) release rather than delays into October. The low 11.5% chance of no launch by October 5 underscores broad consensus on near-term availability, though historical product timeline slips and last-minute regulatory or safety reviews remain key swing factors that could still shift sentiment ahead of any official announcement.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Sol model (5.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Sol" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Sol" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Sol" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Sol" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,634End Date
Oct 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 5:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's accelerated internal testing timelines and competitive pressure from rival labs like Anthropic and Google DeepMind are driving the market's tight clustering of probabilities around late September dates, with September 24 holding the highest implied odds at 31.5%. Recent verified progress on large language model scaling, including capability benchmarks and infrastructure upgrades, supports trader expectations for an imminent GPT Sol Model (5.7+) release rather than delays into October. The low 11.5% chance of no launch by October 5 underscores broad consensus on near-term availability, though historical product timeline slips and last-minute regulatory or safety reviews remain key swing factors that could still shift sentiment ahead of any official announcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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