Recent frequent partial outages and elevated error rates across Claude models (including Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5), the API, claude.ai, Claude Code, and Cowork have shaped trader expectations for September. Anthropic’s status page logged multiple resolved incidents in August alone, with a major multi-hour disruption on August 24 and others on the 18th, 19th, and 20th, continuing a pattern of 100+ incidents over the prior 90 days and uptime near 99.4–99.7%. Demand growth continuing to strain infrastructure, absent major capacity announcements or fixes, positions 8–10 downtime days as the leading outcome at 49% implied probability, with nearby ranges reflecting uncertainty around resolution speed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-10 41%
11-13 30%
5-7 25%
14+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
4%
5-7
25%
8-10
43%
11-13
30%
14+
7%
8-10 41%
11-13 30%
5-7 25%
14+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
$139 Vol.
4%
5-7
$5 Vol.
25%
8-10
$105 Vol.
43%
11-13
$187 Vol.
30%
14+
$93 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent frequent partial outages and elevated error rates across Claude models (including Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5), the API, claude.ai, Claude Code, and Cowork have shaped trader expectations for September. Anthropic’s status page logged multiple resolved incidents in August alone, with a major multi-hour disruption on August 24 and others on the 18th, 19th, and 20th, continuing a pattern of 100+ incidents over the prior 90 days and uptime near 99.4–99.7%. Demand growth continuing to strain infrastructure, absent major capacity announcements or fixes, positions 8–10 downtime days as the leading outcome at 49% implied probability, with nearby ranges reflecting uncertainty around resolution speed.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$530End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent frequent partial outages and elevated error rates across Claude models (including Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5), the API, claude.ai, Claude Code, and Cowork have shaped trader expectations for September. Anthropic’s status page logged multiple resolved incidents in August alone, with a major multi-hour disruption on August 24 and others on the 18th, 19th, and 20th, continuing a pattern of 100+ incidents over the prior 90 days and uptime near 99.4–99.7%. Demand growth continuing to strain infrastructure, absent major capacity announcements or fixes, positions 8–10 downtime days as the leading outcome at 49% implied probability, with nearby ranges reflecting uncertainty around resolution speed.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$530End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent frequent partial outages and elevated error rates across Claude models (including Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5), the API, claude.ai, Claude Code, and Cowork have shaped trader expectations for September. Anthropic’s status page logged multiple resolved incidents in August alone, with a major multi-hour disruption on August 24 and others on the 18th, 19th, and 20th, continuing a pattern of 100+ incidents over the prior 90 days and uptime near 99.4–99.7%. Demand growth continuing to strain infrastructure, absent major capacity announcements or fixes, positions 8–10 downtime days as the leading outcome at 49% implied probability, with nearby ranges reflecting uncertainty around resolution speed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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