Claude Opus 5 variants dominate trader sentiment for the September 7 “best AI model” resolution because Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release delivered a step-change upgrade in deep reasoning, agentic workflows, and coding benchmarks, positioning the model near Fable 5 frontier performance at half the cost while becoming the default on Claude Max. The 67.5% odds on claude-opus-5-high and 27.5% on claude-opus-5-max reflect market views that these effort-level configurations will lead capability leaderboards or consensus evaluations by early September, given the model’s 1M-token context, extended thinking defaults, and efficiency gains over Opus 4.8. No competing frontier releases have emerged in the past month to shift the consensus, though rapid benchmark updates or new model announcements could still alter the narrow gap between high and max variants before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-opus-5-high 68%
claude-opus-5-max 25%
Other 6.0%
claude-opus-4-6-high 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
claude-opus-5-high
68%
claude-opus-5-max
25%
Other
6%
claude-opus-4-6-high
5%
claude-opus-5-high 68%
claude-opus-5-max 25%
Other 6.0%
claude-opus-4-6-high 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
claude-opus-5-high
$20 Vol.
68%
claude-opus-5-max
$20 Vol.
25%
Other
$10 Vol.
6%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$26 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5 variants dominate trader sentiment for the September 7 “best AI model” resolution because Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release delivered a step-change upgrade in deep reasoning, agentic workflows, and coding benchmarks, positioning the model near Fable 5 frontier performance at half the cost while becoming the default on Claude Max. The 67.5% odds on claude-opus-5-high and 27.5% on claude-opus-5-max reflect market views that these effort-level configurations will lead capability leaderboards or consensus evaluations by early September, given the model’s 1M-token context, extended thinking defaults, and efficiency gains over Opus 4.8. No competing frontier releases have emerged in the past month to shift the consensus, though rapid benchmark updates or new model announcements could still alter the narrow gap between high and max variants before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
Volume
$76End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5 variants dominate trader sentiment for the September 7 “best AI model” resolution because Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release delivered a step-change upgrade in deep reasoning, agentic workflows, and coding benchmarks, positioning the model near Fable 5 frontier performance at half the cost while becoming the default on Claude Max. The 67.5% odds on claude-opus-5-high and 27.5% on claude-opus-5-max reflect market views that these effort-level configurations will lead capability leaderboards or consensus evaluations by early September, given the model’s 1M-token context, extended thinking defaults, and efficiency gains over Opus 4.8. No competing frontier releases have emerged in the past month to shift the consensus, though rapid benchmark updates or new model announcements could still alter the narrow gap between high and max variants before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$76End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Opus 5 variants dominate trader sentiment for the September 7 “best AI model” resolution because Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release delivered a step-change upgrade in deep reasoning, agentic workflows, and coding benchmarks, positioning the model near Fable 5 frontier performance at half the cost while becoming the default on Claude Max. The 67.5% odds on claude-opus-5-high and 27.5% on claude-opus-5-max reflect market views that these effort-level configurations will lead capability leaderboards or consensus evaluations by early September, given the model’s 1M-token context, extended thinking defaults, and efficiency gains over Opus 4.8. No competing frontier releases have emerged in the past month to shift the consensus, though rapid benchmark updates or new model announcements could still alter the narrow gap between high and max variants before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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