**xAI's Grok 4 series has steadily advanced on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark of graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, physics, biology, and other domains, but remains behind leaders.** As of September 2026, Grok 4.6 and 4.7 post verified scores around 42.9–43.1% on standard text-only evaluations, compared to Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants leading at 59–65%. Earlier tool-assisted or heavy variants briefly crossed 50% on subsets, reflecting xAI's emphasis on parallel test-time compute and reinforcement learning. Traders price moderate odds for Grok reaching 45%+ by year-end due to rapid industry progress since HLE's January 2025 launch, while higher thresholds like 55%+ face longer odds amid competition from Anthropic, OpenAI, and DeepSeek. Key catalysts include upcoming Grok iterations, potential HLE-Rolling updates, and any official tool-use or agentic protocol clarifications before the December 31, 2026 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$121,251 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
89%
50%+
48%
55%+
34%
60%+
13%
65%+
4%
$121,251 Vol.
45%+
$44,813 Vol.
89%
50%+
$25,504 Vol.
48%
55%+
$30,100 Vol.
34%
60%+
$17,901 Vol.
13%
65%+
$2,934 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**xAI's Grok 4 series has steadily advanced on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark of graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, physics, biology, and other domains, but remains behind leaders.** As of September 2026, Grok 4.6 and 4.7 post verified scores around 42.9–43.1% on standard text-only evaluations, compared to Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants leading at 59–65%. Earlier tool-assisted or heavy variants briefly crossed 50% on subsets, reflecting xAI's emphasis on parallel test-time compute and reinforcement learning. Traders price moderate odds for Grok reaching 45%+ by year-end due to rapid industry progress since HLE's January 2025 launch, while higher thresholds like 55%+ face longer odds amid competition from Anthropic, OpenAI, and DeepSeek. Key catalysts include upcoming Grok iterations, potential HLE-Rolling updates, and any official tool-use or agentic protocol clarifications before the December 31, 2026 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$121,251End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**xAI's Grok 4 series has steadily advanced on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark of graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, physics, biology, and other domains, but remains behind leaders.** As of September 2026, Grok 4.6 and 4.7 post verified scores around 42.9–43.1% on standard text-only evaluations, compared to Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants leading at 59–65%. Earlier tool-assisted or heavy variants briefly crossed 50% on subsets, reflecting xAI's emphasis on parallel test-time compute and reinforcement learning. Traders price moderate odds for Grok reaching 45%+ by year-end due to rapid industry progress since HLE's January 2025 launch, while higher thresholds like 55%+ face longer odds amid competition from Anthropic, OpenAI, and DeepSeek. Key catalysts include upcoming Grok iterations, potential HLE-Rolling updates, and any official tool-use or agentic protocol clarifications before the December 31, 2026 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$121,251End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...**xAI's Grok 4 series has steadily advanced on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark of graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, physics, biology, and other domains, but remains behind leaders.** As of September 2026, Grok 4.6 and 4.7 post verified scores around 42.9–43.1% on standard text-only evaluations, compared to Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants leading at 59–65%. Earlier tool-assisted or heavy variants briefly crossed 50% on subsets, reflecting xAI's emphasis on parallel test-time compute and reinforcement learning. Traders price moderate odds for Grok reaching 45%+ by year-end due to rapid industry progress since HLE's January 2025 launch, while higher thresholds like 55%+ face longer odds amid competition from Anthropic, OpenAI, and DeepSeek. Key catalysts include upcoming Grok iterations, potential HLE-Rolling updates, and any official tool-use or agentic protocol clarifications before the December 31, 2026 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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