Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 84.5% implied probability due to the July 24 release of Claude Opus 5, which quickly established strong positions on human-preference leaderboards such as LMSYS Arena and coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench variants. This model’s edge in reasoning depth, prose quality, and agentic workflows has held without a clear surpassing release from rivals through mid-August. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash updates in early-to-mid August have narrowed gaps in specific areas like multimodality and cost-efficiency but have not displaced Claude’s overall standing. With only two months remaining before October resolution, traders view the current hierarchy as stable absent major new frontier drops or benchmark shifts. Lower odds for other labs reflect slower recent cadence or narrower capability advantages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 85%
Google 5.9%
OpenAI 5.4%
SpaceXAI 4.4%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
85%
6%
OpenAI
5%
SpaceXAI
4%
Meituan
2%
Microsoft
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Thinky
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
Anthropic 85%
Google 5.9%
OpenAI 5.4%
SpaceXAI 4.4%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,148 Vol.
85%
$175 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$192 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$301 Vol.
4%
Meituan
$217 Vol.
2%
Microsoft
$172 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$249 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$196 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$187 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$204 Vol.
1%
Meta
$182 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$209 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$166 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$219 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$199 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$193 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$199 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$199 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$186 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$199 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$187 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 84.5% implied probability due to the July 24 release of Claude Opus 5, which quickly established strong positions on human-preference leaderboards such as LMSYS Arena and coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench variants. This model’s edge in reasoning depth, prose quality, and agentic workflows has held without a clear surpassing release from rivals through mid-August. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash updates in early-to-mid August have narrowed gaps in specific areas like multimodality and cost-efficiency but have not displaced Claude’s overall standing. With only two months remaining before October resolution, traders view the current hierarchy as stable absent major new frontier drops or benchmark shifts. Lower odds for other labs reflect slower recent cadence or narrower capability advantages.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$8,178End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 84.5% implied probability due to the July 24 release of Claude Opus 5, which quickly established strong positions on human-preference leaderboards such as LMSYS Arena and coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench variants. This model’s edge in reasoning depth, prose quality, and agentic workflows has held without a clear surpassing release from rivals through mid-August. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash updates in early-to-mid August have narrowed gaps in specific areas like multimodality and cost-efficiency but have not displaced Claude’s overall standing. With only two months remaining before October resolution, traders view the current hierarchy as stable absent major new frontier drops or benchmark shifts. Lower odds for other labs reflect slower recent cadence or narrower capability advantages.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$8,178End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 84.5% implied probability due to the July 24 release of Claude Opus 5, which quickly established strong positions on human-preference leaderboards such as LMSYS Arena and coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench variants. This model’s edge in reasoning depth, prose quality, and agentic workflows has held without a clear surpassing release from rivals through mid-August. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash updates in early-to-mid August have narrowed gaps in specific areas like multimodality and cost-efficiency but have not displaced Claude’s overall standing. With only two months remaining before October resolution, traders view the current hierarchy as stable absent major new frontier drops or benchmark shifts. Lower odds for other labs reflect slower recent cadence or narrower capability advantages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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