The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous emerging AI labs and "Other" reflect significant uncertainty in the competitive landscape, driven by rapid progress in efficient model training and specialized capabilities from players like DeepSeek, Mistral, and various Chinese labs. Traders appear to view OpenAI and Anthropic as entrenched leaders, assigning them low odds for third place, while Meta and Google at 27.5% represent established contenders with strong infrastructure and research output. Recent benchmark improvements and open-weight releases have elevated smaller labs' visibility, yet scaling limitations, talent competition, and potential regulatory hurdles keep outcomes fluid ahead of November resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDeepSeek 49%
Meituan 48%
Baidu 29.0%
Meta 28%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
DeepSeek
49%
Meituan
48%
Baidu
29%
Meta
28%
StepFun
25%
Z.ai
25%
Tencent
24%
Alibaba
23%
20%
Thinky
15%
Xiaomi
14%
Mistral
14%
Nvidia
13%
Microsoft
13%
Moonshot
12%
Anthropic
8%
SpaceXAI
11%
OpenAI
8%
Amazon
8%
ByteDance
7%
MiniMax
5%
DeepSeek 49%
Meituan 48%
Baidu 29.0%
Meta 28%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
DeepSeek
$37 Vol.
49%
Meituan
$37 Vol.
48%
Baidu
$46 Vol.
29%
Meta
$66 Vol.
28%
StepFun
$37 Vol.
25%
Z.ai
$46 Vol.
25%
Tencent
$46 Vol.
24%
Alibaba
$37 Vol.
23%
$46 Vol.
20%
Thinky
$46 Vol.
15%
Xiaomi
$46 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$37 Vol.
14%
Nvidia
$46 Vol.
13%
Microsoft
$46 Vol.
13%
Moonshot
$46 Vol.
12%
Anthropic
$106 Vol.
8%
SpaceXAI
$46 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$46 Vol.
8%
Amazon
$46 Vol.
8%
ByteDance
$55 Vol.
7%
MiniMax
$46 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous emerging AI labs and "Other" reflect significant uncertainty in the competitive landscape, driven by rapid progress in efficient model training and specialized capabilities from players like DeepSeek, Mistral, and various Chinese labs. Traders appear to view OpenAI and Anthropic as entrenched leaders, assigning them low odds for third place, while Meta and Google at 27.5% represent established contenders with strong infrastructure and research output. Recent benchmark improvements and open-weight releases have elevated smaller labs' visibility, yet scaling limitations, talent competition, and potential regulatory hurdles keep outcomes fluid ahead of November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,017End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous emerging AI labs and "Other" reflect significant uncertainty in the competitive landscape, driven by rapid progress in efficient model training and specialized capabilities from players like DeepSeek, Mistral, and various Chinese labs. Traders appear to view OpenAI and Anthropic as entrenched leaders, assigning them low odds for third place, while Meta and Google at 27.5% represent established contenders with strong infrastructure and research output. Recent benchmark improvements and open-weight releases have elevated smaller labs' visibility, yet scaling limitations, talent competition, and potential regulatory hurdles keep outcomes fluid ahead of November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,017End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous emerging AI labs and "Other" reflect significant uncertainty in the competitive landscape, driven by rapid progress in efficient model training and specialized capabilities from players like DeepSeek, Mistral, and various Chinese labs. Traders appear to view OpenAI and Anthropic as entrenched leaders, assigning them low odds for third place, while Meta and Google at 27.5% represent established contenders with strong infrastructure and research output. Recent benchmark improvements and open-weight releases have elevated smaller labs' visibility, yet scaling limitations, talent competition, and potential regulatory hurdles keep outcomes fluid ahead of November resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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