Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, topping September 2026 leaderboards at 59–65% depending on protocol, serves as the main catalyst lifting trader expectations for Humanity’s Last Exam scores by year-end. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, created by CAIS and Scale AI to resist saturation, has seen frontier performance climb rapidly from low single digits at launch to the mid-40s percent earlier in 2026 and now the upper 50s with reasoning enhancements. Meta’s Muse Spark series trails closely while OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and Google Gemini variants occupy the next tier, underscoring intense lab competition. With three months remaining, further model iterations focused on multi-step reasoning or tool use could extend the upward trajectory before the December 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$71,635 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
60%+
52%
65%+
29%
70%+
15%
75%+
11%
80%+
7%
90%+
5%
$71,635 Vol.
60%+
$40,843 Vol.
52%
65%+
$16,633 Vol.
29%
70%+
$6,392 Vol.
15%
75%+
$3,602 Vol.
11%
80%+
$1,710 Vol.
7%
90%+
$2,455 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, topping September 2026 leaderboards at 59–65% depending on protocol, serves as the main catalyst lifting trader expectations for Humanity’s Last Exam scores by year-end. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, created by CAIS and Scale AI to resist saturation, has seen frontier performance climb rapidly from low single digits at launch to the mid-40s percent earlier in 2026 and now the upper 50s with reasoning enhancements. Meta’s Muse Spark series trails closely while OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and Google Gemini variants occupy the next tier, underscoring intense lab competition. With three months remaining, further model iterations focused on multi-step reasoning or tool use could extend the upward trajectory before the December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$71,635End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, topping September 2026 leaderboards at 59–65% depending on protocol, serves as the main catalyst lifting trader expectations for Humanity’s Last Exam scores by year-end. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, created by CAIS and Scale AI to resist saturation, has seen frontier performance climb rapidly from low single digits at launch to the mid-40s percent earlier in 2026 and now the upper 50s with reasoning enhancements. Meta’s Muse Spark series trails closely while OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and Google Gemini variants occupy the next tier, underscoring intense lab competition. With three months remaining, further model iterations focused on multi-step reasoning or tool use could extend the upward trajectory before the December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$71,635End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, topping September 2026 leaderboards at 59–65% depending on protocol, serves as the main catalyst lifting trader expectations for Humanity’s Last Exam scores by year-end. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, created by CAIS and Scale AI to resist saturation, has seen frontier performance climb rapidly from low single digits at launch to the mid-40s percent earlier in 2026 and now the upper 50s with reasoning enhancements. Meta’s Muse Spark series trails closely while OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and Google Gemini variants occupy the next tier, underscoring intense lab competition. With three months remaining, further model iterations focused on multi-step reasoning or tool use could extend the upward trajectory before the December 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
80%
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
33%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
86%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions