Traders show strong consensus around Anthropic as the leader in AI agent performance by end of October, backed by its dominant 86.5% implied probability. This reflects recent demonstrated gains in Claude's agentic features, including improved tool integration, multi-step planning, and reliable execution on complex tasks that have set it ahead of rivals in third-party evaluations. OpenAI sits far behind at 11% amid ongoing model iterations, while Google, Meta, and others register minimal support. With resolution approaching quickly, any new capability releases or benchmark results from major labs in the coming weeks could still shift sentiment, though current market positioning highlights Anthropic's edge in practical AI agent deployment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 87%
OpenAI 11%
Meta 2.2%
Google <1%
$35,666 Vol.
$35,666 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
87%
OpenAI
11%
Meta
2%
1%
Alibaba
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 87%
OpenAI 11%
Meta 2.2%
Google <1%
$35,666 Vol.
$35,666 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$19,463 Vol.
87%
OpenAI
$4,628 Vol.
11%
Meta
$1,245 Vol.
2%
$1,113 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$908 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,284 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$977 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$464 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$651 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$908 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$372 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$511 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$497 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$464 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$335 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$660 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$675 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$509 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders show strong consensus around Anthropic as the leader in AI agent performance by end of October, backed by its dominant 86.5% implied probability. This reflects recent demonstrated gains in Claude's agentic features, including improved tool integration, multi-step planning, and reliable execution on complex tasks that have set it ahead of rivals in third-party evaluations. OpenAI sits far behind at 11% amid ongoing model iterations, while Google, Meta, and others register minimal support. With resolution approaching quickly, any new capability releases or benchmark results from major labs in the coming weeks could still shift sentiment, though current market positioning highlights Anthropic's edge in practical AI agent deployment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$35,666End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders show strong consensus around Anthropic as the leader in AI agent performance by end of October, backed by its dominant 86.5% implied probability. This reflects recent demonstrated gains in Claude's agentic features, including improved tool integration, multi-step planning, and reliable execution on complex tasks that have set it ahead of rivals in third-party evaluations. OpenAI sits far behind at 11% amid ongoing model iterations, while Google, Meta, and others register minimal support. With resolution approaching quickly, any new capability releases or benchmark results from major labs in the coming weeks could still shift sentiment, though current market positioning highlights Anthropic's edge in practical AI agent deployment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$35,666End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders show strong consensus around Anthropic as the leader in AI agent performance by end of October, backed by its dominant 86.5% implied probability. This reflects recent demonstrated gains in Claude's agentic features, including improved tool integration, multi-step planning, and reliable execution on complex tasks that have set it ahead of rivals in third-party evaluations. OpenAI sits far behind at 11% amid ongoing model iterations, while Google, Meta, and others register minimal support. With resolution approaching quickly, any new capability releases or benchmark results from major labs in the coming weeks could still shift sentiment, though current market positioning highlights Anthropic's edge in practical AI agent deployment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions