MiniMax’s H3 multimodal model, released in late July with open weights and native 2K image-to-video generation plus synchronized stereo audio, has driven the overwhelming trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability. Independent arenas show it leading or near the top in image-to-video benchmarks through September, bolstered by rapid community LoRAs, ComfyUI workflows, and distillation variants that improve speed and control without sacrificing fidelity. This combination of demonstrated capability, accessibility, and recent ecosystem momentum has solidified its position heading into the final week. A last-minute benchmark-topping update from competitors such as Google’s Veo series or ByteDance’s Seedance variants remains the most plausible scenario that could still shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMiniMax 92%
Google 3.6%
ByteDance 3.5%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 2.8%
$13,449 Vol.
$13,449 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
MiniMax
92%
4%
ByteDance
3%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
3%
Pixverse
2%
Black Forest Labs
2%
SpaceXAI
2%
Pruna
1%
Runway
1%
Shengshu
1%
Lightricks
1%
Tencent
<1%
KlingAI
<1%
Luma AI
<1%
Pika
<1%
MiniMax 92%
Google 3.6%
ByteDance 3.5%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 2.8%
$13,449 Vol.
$13,449 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
MiniMax
$5,187 Vol.
92%
$2,617 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$639 Vol.
3%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$266 Vol.
3%
Pixverse
$273 Vol.
2%
Black Forest Labs
$262 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$292 Vol.
2%
Pruna
$265 Vol.
1%
Runway
$1,946 Vol.
1%
Shengshu
$293 Vol.
1%
Lightricks
$244 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$330 Vol.
<1%
KlingAI
$253 Vol.
<1%
Luma AI
$304 Vol.
<1%
Pika
$282 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".MiniMax’s H3 multimodal model, released in late July with open weights and native 2K image-to-video generation plus synchronized stereo audio, has driven the overwhelming trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability. Independent arenas show it leading or near the top in image-to-video benchmarks through September, bolstered by rapid community LoRAs, ComfyUI workflows, and distillation variants that improve speed and control without sacrificing fidelity. This combination of demonstrated capability, accessibility, and recent ecosystem momentum has solidified its position heading into the final week. A last-minute benchmark-topping update from competitors such as Google’s Veo series or ByteDance’s Seedance variants remains the most plausible scenario that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 3:53 PM ET
Volume
$13,449End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".MiniMax’s H3 multimodal model, released in late July with open weights and native 2K image-to-video generation plus synchronized stereo audio, has driven the overwhelming trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability. Independent arenas show it leading or near the top in image-to-video benchmarks through September, bolstered by rapid community LoRAs, ComfyUI workflows, and distillation variants that improve speed and control without sacrificing fidelity. This combination of demonstrated capability, accessibility, and recent ecosystem momentum has solidified its position heading into the final week. A last-minute benchmark-topping update from competitors such as Google’s Veo series or ByteDance’s Seedance variants remains the most plausible scenario that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$13,449End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...MiniMax’s H3 multimodal model, released in late July with open weights and native 2K image-to-video generation plus synchronized stereo audio, has driven the overwhelming trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability. Independent arenas show it leading or near the top in image-to-video benchmarks through September, bolstered by rapid community LoRAs, ComfyUI workflows, and distillation variants that improve speed and control without sacrificing fidelity. This combination of demonstrated capability, accessibility, and recent ecosystem momentum has solidified its position heading into the final week. A last-minute benchmark-topping update from competitors such as Google’s Veo series or ByteDance’s Seedance variants remains the most plausible scenario that could still shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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