Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?
Tech·AI

Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?

icon for Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?
Tech·AI

Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?

Sep 30

Oct 31

Dec 1

Sep 30

Oct 31

Dec 1

Google 87%

Meta 4.3%

ByteDance 4.0%

Luma AI 3.7%

Polymarket

$25,053 Vol.

Google 87%

Meta 4.3%

ByteDance 4.0%

Luma AI 3.7%

Polymarket

$25,053 Vol.

icon for Google

Google

$16,546 Vol.

87%

icon for Meta

Meta

$602 Vol.

4%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$1,083 Vol.

4%

icon for Luma AI

Luma AI

$466 Vol.

4%

icon for Runway

Runway

$579 Vol.

3%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$700 Vol.

1%

icon for Pruna

Pruna

$459 Vol.

1%

icon for Tencent

Tencent

$405 Vol.

1%

icon for Genmo AI

Genmo AI

$524 Vol.

1%

icon for Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH

Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH

$397 Vol.

1%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$445 Vol.

1%

icon for Pixverse

Pixverse

$402 Vol.

1%

icon for KlingAI

KlingAI

$477 Vol.

1%

icon for Lightricks

Lightricks

$511 Vol.

1%

icon for Pika

Pika

$514 Vol.

1%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$513 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kandinsky

Kandinsky

$430 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini Omni Flash leads text-to-video benchmarks with top Elo scores on Artificial Analysis and strong marks for prompt adherence, native audio synthesis, and multimodal editing, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds. Its June 2026 release and integration into Gemini workflows, combined with accessible free tiers via Google Vids and competitive resolution up to 4K, have solidified trader consensus over closed rivals. Competitors like ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 and Kling 3.0 trail in overall arena rankings despite strengths in motion and value, while OpenAI's Sora API sunset on September 24 removes a prior contender. Meta's newly announced Movie Gen model remains too recent to shift sentiment before month-end resolution.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$25,053
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini Omni Flash leads text-to-video benchmarks with top Elo scores on Artificial Analysis and strong marks for prompt adherence, native audio synthesis, and multimodal editing, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds. Its June 2026 release and integration into Gemini workflows, combined with accessible free tiers via Google Vids and competitive resolution up to 4K, have solidified trader consensus over closed rivals. Competitors like ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 and Kling 3.0 trail in overall arena rankings despite strengths in motion and value, while OpenAI's Sora API sunset on September 24 removes a prior contender. Meta's newly announced Movie Gen model remains too recent to shift sentiment before month-end resolution.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$25,053
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?

Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?

62%
icon for Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?

Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?

46%
icon for Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?

Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?

92%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Google" at 87%, followed by "Meta" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?" has generated $25.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?" is "Google" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Meta" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.