Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 86% implied probability for OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI) achievement before 2027, driven by the absence of any official claim despite aggressive scaling efforts like the April 29 Stargate compute expansion and five AGI governance principles outlined earlier that month. Recent developments, including a renegotiated Microsoft deal removing AGI-triggered clauses and the May 11 launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company for enterprise AI, underscore commercialization priorities over bold capability declarations. An independent verification panel required for AGI claims adds a high bar, while current large language models like successors to o1-preview lag true AGI benchmarks in generalization and autonomy. With resolution looming by year-end, traders anticipate timeline slips absent a surprise model breakthrough or regulatory tailwinds.