**Strong trader consensus favoring "No" at 91% reflects OpenAI's measured public timeline and absence of any AGI declaration through mid-2026.** Sam Altman has outlined incremental milestones such as AI "research interns" in 2026 and fully autonomous AI researchers targeted for 2028, while company statements project only modest scientific discovery capabilities this year and more significant advances after 2028. Recent model releases, including GPT-5.3-Codex advances in autonomous coding and agentic tasks, demonstrate meaningful progress in large language models and reasoning benchmarks but fall short of the broad, human-level generality typically required for an AGI announcement. Regulatory scrutiny, safety considerations, and evolving internal definitions of AGI further encourage caution over premature claims. A late-2026 breakthrough enabling a credible announcement remains possible if recursive self-improvement accelerates faster than current verified capabilities suggest.