Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation before 2027, driven primarily by CFO Sarah Friar's recent internal pushback against CEO Sam Altman's aggressive 2026 timeline. As of early May 2026, no S-1 filing has surfaced despite earlier Q4 IPO rumors, with Friar citing insufficient financial preparations amid projected $85 billion losses in 2028 from explosive AI compute spending—$121 billion by then—despite $852 billion post-money valuation from March's record $122 billion funding round. Ongoing Musk lawsuit, regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, and competitive pressures from Anthropic further temper expectations for rapid public listing at such a lofty market cap, with key catalysts including any S-1 disclosure or Q2 earnings signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$269,115 Vol.
$269,115 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$269,115 Vol.
$269,115 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation before 2027, driven primarily by CFO Sarah Friar's recent internal pushback against CEO Sam Altman's aggressive 2026 timeline. As of early May 2026, no S-1 filing has surfaced despite earlier Q4 IPO rumors, with Friar citing insufficient financial preparations amid projected $85 billion losses in 2028 from explosive AI compute spending—$121 billion by then—despite $852 billion post-money valuation from March's record $122 billion funding round. Ongoing Musk lawsuit, regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, and competitive pressures from Anthropic further temper expectations for rapid public listing at such a lofty market cap, with key catalysts including any S-1 disclosure or Q2 earnings signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Market Opened: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$269,115End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation before 2027, driven primarily by CFO Sarah Friar's recent internal pushback against CEO Sam Altman's aggressive 2026 timeline. As of early May 2026, no S-1 filing has surfaced despite earlier Q4 IPO rumors, with Friar citing insufficient financial preparations amid projected $85 billion losses in 2028 from explosive AI compute spending—$121 billion by then—despite $852 billion post-money valuation from March's record $122 billion funding round. Ongoing Musk lawsuit, regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, and competitive pressures from Anthropic further temper expectations for rapid public listing at such a lofty market cap, with key catalysts including any S-1 disclosure or Q2 earnings signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Volume
$269,115End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation before 2027, driven primarily by CFO Sarah Friar's recent internal pushback against CEO Sam Altman's aggressive 2026 timeline. As of early May 2026, no S-1 filing has surfaced despite earlier Q4 IPO rumors, with Friar citing insufficient financial preparations amid projected $85 billion losses in 2028 from explosive AI compute spending—$121 billion by then—despite $852 billion post-money valuation from March's record $122 billion funding round. Ongoing Musk lawsuit, regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, and competitive pressures from Anthropic further temper expectations for rapid public listing at such a lofty market cap, with key catalysts including any S-1 disclosure or Q2 earnings signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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