OpenAI’s IPO valuation market shows closely matched probabilities across $1.25T–$2T bins because the company’s $852 billion March 2026 private valuation sits below CEO Sam Altman’s reported $1 trillion floor, while CFO Sarah Friar signaled a 2027 debut after the anticipated September 2026 window passed without a public S-1. Secondary trading at roughly $722 per share implies an $890 billion mark as of early September 2026, supported by a $24 billion annualized revenue run rate yet offset by heavy operating losses and multi-year infrastructure commitments. This mix of growth momentum, profitability gaps, and timing optionality keeps the distribution broad rather than clustered around any single outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1.75T–$2.0T 22%
$1.25T–$1.5T 20.5%
$1.5T–$1.75T 18.6%
$2.5T+ 14.3%
$126,232 Vol.
$126,232 Vol.
<$1T
6%
$1.0T–$1.25T
11%
$1.25T–$1.5T
21%
$1.5T–$1.75T
19%
$1.75T–$2.0T
22%
$2.0T–$2.25T
4%
$2.25T–$2.5T
9%
$2.5T+
14%
$1.75T–$2.0T 22%
$1.25T–$1.5T 20.5%
$1.5T–$1.75T 18.6%
$2.5T+ 14.3%
$126,232 Vol.
$126,232 Vol.
<$1T
6%
$1.0T–$1.25T
11%
$1.25T–$1.5T
21%
$1.5T–$1.75T
19%
$1.75T–$2.0T
22%
$2.0T–$2.25T
4%
$2.25T–$2.5T
9%
$2.5T+
14%
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s IPO valuation market shows closely matched probabilities across $1.25T–$2T bins because the company’s $852 billion March 2026 private valuation sits below CEO Sam Altman’s reported $1 trillion floor, while CFO Sarah Friar signaled a 2027 debut after the anticipated September 2026 window passed without a public S-1. Secondary trading at roughly $722 per share implies an $890 billion mark as of early September 2026, supported by a $24 billion annualized revenue run rate yet offset by heavy operating losses and multi-year infrastructure commitments. This mix of growth momentum, profitability gaps, and timing optionality keeps the distribution broad rather than clustered around any single outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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