Rapid progress across multiple large language models in mathematical reasoning has fragmented trader expectations for the second-highest Text Arena Math ranking by late November. Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi series, Z.ai’s GLM models, and Alibaba’s Qwen variants have posted leading or near-leading scores on recent AIME, HMMT, and FrontierMath evaluations, narrowing the gap with Anthropic and OpenAI systems that currently dominate the arena leaderboard. Open-weight releases and aggressive iteration by DeepSeek and MiniMax add further uncertainty, while established players like Google continue incremental gains. With no single lab holding a decisive edge and two months of potential announcements or benchmark shifts remaining, market-implied odds near 50% for numerous contenders reflect this tight, evolving competition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 29%
Tencent 23.8%
OpenAI 18%
Alibaba 14.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
29%
Tencent
24%
OpenAI
18%
Alibaba
14%
Microsoft
12%
Moonshot
10%
Anthropic
7%
Z.ai
7%
Mistral
5%
Amazon
5%
Baidu
4%
MiniMax
4%
ByteDance
4%
Thinky
4%
Meituan
4%
SpaceXAI
4%
DeepSeek
4%
StepFun
4%
Xiaomi
4%
Meta
4%
Nvidia
4%
Google 29%
Tencent 23.8%
OpenAI 18%
Alibaba 14.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
$333 Vol.
29%
Tencent
$39 Vol.
24%
OpenAI
$45 Vol.
18%
Alibaba
$38 Vol.
14%
Microsoft
$83 Vol.
12%
Moonshot
$164 Vol.
10%
Anthropic
$39 Vol.
7%
Z.ai
$44 Vol.
7%
Mistral
$197 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$262 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$44 Vol.
4%
MiniMax
$39 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$38 Vol.
4%
Thinky
$69 Vol.
4%
Meituan
$39 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$39 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$261 Vol.
4%
StepFun
$58 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$39 Vol.
4%
Meta
$38 Vol.
4%
Nvidia
$38 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Rapid progress across multiple large language models in mathematical reasoning has fragmented trader expectations for the second-highest Text Arena Math ranking by late November. Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi series, Z.ai’s GLM models, and Alibaba’s Qwen variants have posted leading or near-leading scores on recent AIME, HMMT, and FrontierMath evaluations, narrowing the gap with Anthropic and OpenAI systems that currently dominate the arena leaderboard. Open-weight releases and aggressive iteration by DeepSeek and MiniMax add further uncertainty, while established players like Google continue incremental gains. With no single lab holding a decisive edge and two months of potential announcements or benchmark shifts remaining, market-implied odds near 50% for numerous contenders reflect this tight, evolving competition.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,941End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Rapid progress across multiple large language models in mathematical reasoning has fragmented trader expectations for the second-highest Text Arena Math ranking by late November. Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi series, Z.ai’s GLM models, and Alibaba’s Qwen variants have posted leading or near-leading scores on recent AIME, HMMT, and FrontierMath evaluations, narrowing the gap with Anthropic and OpenAI systems that currently dominate the arena leaderboard. Open-weight releases and aggressive iteration by DeepSeek and MiniMax add further uncertainty, while established players like Google continue incremental gains. With no single lab holding a decisive edge and two months of potential announcements or benchmark shifts remaining, market-implied odds near 50% for numerous contenders reflect this tight, evolving competition.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,941End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rapid progress across multiple large language models in mathematical reasoning has fragmented trader expectations for the second-highest Text Arena Math ranking by late November. Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi series, Z.ai’s GLM models, and Alibaba’s Qwen variants have posted leading or near-leading scores on recent AIME, HMMT, and FrontierMath evaluations, narrowing the gap with Anthropic and OpenAI systems that currently dominate the arena leaderboard. Open-weight releases and aggressive iteration by DeepSeek and MiniMax add further uncertainty, while established players like Google continue incremental gains. With no single lab holding a decisive edge and two months of potential announcements or benchmark shifts remaining, market-implied odds near 50% for numerous contenders reflect this tight, evolving competition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions