Anthropic holds a dominant 93.5% market-implied probability for the best Text Arena Math AI model by end of September due to consistent top rankings on math-specific benchmarks and real-world problem-solving evaluations. Its large language models have shown superior reasoning chains and accuracy on complex quantitative tasks compared with competitors, reinforced by recent capability demonstrations and iterative refinements that outpace rivals in this narrow domain. OpenAI and Google trail significantly at 2.8% and 1.6%, reflecting slower progress on math-focused leaderboards. With resolution days away, traders see limited room for reversal unless an unexpected late-month model update or arena scoring change emerges from another lab.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 94%
OpenAI 2.9%
Google 1.6%
Xiaomi <1%
$69,808 Vol.
$69,808 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
94%
OpenAI
3%
2%
Xiaomi
1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 94%
OpenAI 2.9%
Google 1.6%
Xiaomi <1%
$69,808 Vol.
$69,808 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$20,320 Vol.
94%
OpenAI
$20,745 Vol.
3%
$9,867 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$1,986 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$3,703 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,457 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$2,129 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$642 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$2,171 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$1,715 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$499 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$565 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$458 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$466 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$450 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$449 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$609 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$518 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a dominant 93.5% market-implied probability for the best Text Arena Math AI model by end of September due to consistent top rankings on math-specific benchmarks and real-world problem-solving evaluations. Its large language models have shown superior reasoning chains and accuracy on complex quantitative tasks compared with competitors, reinforced by recent capability demonstrations and iterative refinements that outpace rivals in this narrow domain. OpenAI and Google trail significantly at 2.8% and 1.6%, reflecting slower progress on math-focused leaderboards. With resolution days away, traders see limited room for reversal unless an unexpected late-month model update or arena scoring change emerges from another lab.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$69,808End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a dominant 93.5% market-implied probability for the best Text Arena Math AI model by end of September due to consistent top rankings on math-specific benchmarks and real-world problem-solving evaluations. Its large language models have shown superior reasoning chains and accuracy on complex quantitative tasks compared with competitors, reinforced by recent capability demonstrations and iterative refinements that outpace rivals in this narrow domain. OpenAI and Google trail significantly at 2.8% and 1.6%, reflecting slower progress on math-focused leaderboards. With resolution days away, traders see limited room for reversal unless an unexpected late-month model update or arena scoring change emerges from another lab.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$69,808End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a dominant 93.5% market-implied probability for the best Text Arena Math AI model by end of September due to consistent top rankings on math-specific benchmarks and real-world problem-solving evaluations. Its large language models have shown superior reasoning chains and accuracy on complex quantitative tasks compared with competitors, reinforced by recent capability demonstrations and iterative refinements that outpace rivals in this narrow domain. OpenAI and Google trail significantly at 2.8% and 1.6%, reflecting slower progress on math-focused leaderboards. With resolution days away, traders see limited room for reversal unless an unexpected late-month model update or arena scoring change emerges from another lab.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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