Anthropic’s Claude models, including claude-opus-5-max and claude-fable-5, hold the top ranks on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard as of late August 2026, driving the 82.5% implied probability through superior chain-of-thought reasoning and performance on competition-style math problems. Recent Claude 5-series releases have delivered measurable gains in step-by-step explanations and complex problem-solving that outpace OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini models. The extended timeline to end-October introduces room for rival updates or benchmark shifts, though Anthropic’s consistent lead in verified math capabilities currently underpins trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 83%
OpenAI 11%
Google 3.1%
DeepSeek 2.6%
$15,650 Vol.
$15,650 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
83%
OpenAI
11%
3%
DeepSeek
3%
SpaceXAI
2%
Tencent
2%
Meituan
2%
Xiaomi
2%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Meta
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
StepFun
1%
Microsoft
1%
Amazon
1%
Baidu
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Anthropic 83%
OpenAI 11%
Google 3.1%
DeepSeek 2.6%
$15,650 Vol.
$15,650 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$6,430 Vol.
83%
OpenAI
$2,784 Vol.
11%
$375 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$431 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$330 Vol.
2%
Tencent
$397 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$364 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$416 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$342 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$338 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$349 Vol.
1%
Meta
$331 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$331 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$343 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$366 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$361 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$306 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$394 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$336 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude models, including claude-opus-5-max and claude-fable-5, hold the top ranks on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard as of late August 2026, driving the 82.5% implied probability through superior chain-of-thought reasoning and performance on competition-style math problems. Recent Claude 5-series releases have delivered measurable gains in step-by-step explanations and complex problem-solving that outpace OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini models. The extended timeline to end-October introduces room for rival updates or benchmark shifts, though Anthropic’s consistent lead in verified math capabilities currently underpins trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$15,650End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude models, including claude-opus-5-max and claude-fable-5, hold the top ranks on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard as of late August 2026, driving the 82.5% implied probability through superior chain-of-thought reasoning and performance on competition-style math problems. Recent Claude 5-series releases have delivered measurable gains in step-by-step explanations and complex problem-solving that outpace OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini models. The extended timeline to end-October introduces room for rival updates or benchmark shifts, though Anthropic’s consistent lead in verified math capabilities currently underpins trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$15,650End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude models, including claude-opus-5-max and claude-fable-5, hold the top ranks on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard as of late August 2026, driving the 82.5% implied probability through superior chain-of-thought reasoning and performance on competition-style math problems. Recent Claude 5-series releases have delivered measurable gains in step-by-step explanations and complex problem-solving that outpace OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Google’s Gemini models. The extended timeline to end-October introduces room for rival updates or benchmark shifts, though Anthropic’s consistent lead in verified math capabilities currently underpins trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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