Anthropic’s release cadence for its lightweight Haiku models has lagged behind flagship updates, with Claude Haiku 4.5 launched in October 2025 as the current fastest, lowest-cost option that matches prior Sonnet-level coding and agent performance on benchmarks like SWE-bench. Larger Claude 5-series models (Opus 5, Sonnet 5, Fable 5) arrived in June–July 2026 without a corresponding Haiku refresh, reflecting a pattern where the company skips or delays the efficiency tier until new capabilities like extended thinking or computer use are stabilized in bigger models. Traders are watching for any official blog post, API alias change, or AWS Bedrock integration that signals a Haiku 5 or 4.6 variant, especially as competitive pressure from faster Gemini or GPT variants grows. No confirmed timeline exists yet, leaving resolution dependent on Anthropic’s internal prioritization of speed-versus-intelligence trade-offs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext Claude Haiku released by...?
Next Claude Haiku released by...?
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
6%
October 31
59%
December 31
61%
$6,010 Vol.
August 31
$1,527 Vol.
6%
October 31
$791 Vol.
59%
December 31
$3,692 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s release cadence for its lightweight Haiku models has lagged behind flagship updates, with Claude Haiku 4.5 launched in October 2025 as the current fastest, lowest-cost option that matches prior Sonnet-level coding and agent performance on benchmarks like SWE-bench. Larger Claude 5-series models (Opus 5, Sonnet 5, Fable 5) arrived in June–July 2026 without a corresponding Haiku refresh, reflecting a pattern where the company skips or delays the efficiency tier until new capabilities like extended thinking or computer use are stabilized in bigger models. Traders are watching for any official blog post, API alias change, or AWS Bedrock integration that signals a Haiku 5 or 4.6 variant, especially as competitive pressure from faster Gemini or GPT variants grows. No confirmed timeline exists yet, leaving resolution dependent on Anthropic’s internal prioritization of speed-versus-intelligence trade-offs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$6,010End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s release cadence for its lightweight Haiku models has lagged behind flagship updates, with Claude Haiku 4.5 launched in October 2025 as the current fastest, lowest-cost option that matches prior Sonnet-level coding and agent performance on benchmarks like SWE-bench. Larger Claude 5-series models (Opus 5, Sonnet 5, Fable 5) arrived in June–July 2026 without a corresponding Haiku refresh, reflecting a pattern where the company skips or delays the efficiency tier until new capabilities like extended thinking or computer use are stabilized in bigger models. Traders are watching for any official blog post, API alias change, or AWS Bedrock integration that signals a Haiku 5 or 4.6 variant, especially as competitive pressure from faster Gemini or GPT variants grows. No confirmed timeline exists yet, leaving resolution dependent on Anthropic’s internal prioritization of speed-versus-intelligence trade-offs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,010End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s release cadence for its lightweight Haiku models has lagged behind flagship updates, with Claude Haiku 4.5 launched in October 2025 as the current fastest, lowest-cost option that matches prior Sonnet-level coding and agent performance on benchmarks like SWE-bench. Larger Claude 5-series models (Opus 5, Sonnet 5, Fable 5) arrived in June–July 2026 without a corresponding Haiku refresh, reflecting a pattern where the company skips or delays the efficiency tier until new capabilities like extended thinking or computer use are stabilized in bigger models. Traders are watching for any official blog post, API alias change, or AWS Bedrock integration that signals a Haiku 5 or 4.6 variant, especially as competitive pressure from faster Gemini or GPT variants grows. No confirmed timeline exists yet, leaving resolution dependent on Anthropic’s internal prioritization of speed-versus-intelligence trade-offs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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