Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 78% for topping LiveBench Mathematics by end of October, reflecting trader consensus around its Claude family models’ recent gains in advanced mathematical reasoning and competition-style problem solving. OpenAI trails at 14% amid competitive GPT-5 series releases, while Google sits at just 3.3% and most other labs remain near 0.5% or lower, consistent with current leaderboard gaps in contamination-resistant math tasks. Key drivers include Anthropic’s September disclosure on internal AI-assisted R&D progress and strong Claude performance in related high-difficulty math evaluations. With roughly six weeks until resolution, any new model updates or LiveBench question refreshes could still shift positioning before the final snapshot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 78%
OpenAI 15%
Google 3.5%
Microsoft <1%
$24,096 Vol.
$24,096 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
78%
OpenAI
15%
3%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Anthropic 78%
OpenAI 15%
Google 3.5%
Microsoft <1%
$24,096 Vol.
$24,096 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$6,543 Vol.
78%
OpenAI
$6,974 Vol.
15%
$1,508 Vol.
3%
Microsoft
$573 Vol.
1%
Meta
$536 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$515 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$836 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$519 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$626 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$494 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$602 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$523 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$553 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$499 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$286 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$390 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$858 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$253 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$386 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$283 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$339 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 78% for topping LiveBench Mathematics by end of October, reflecting trader consensus around its Claude family models’ recent gains in advanced mathematical reasoning and competition-style problem solving. OpenAI trails at 14% amid competitive GPT-5 series releases, while Google sits at just 3.3% and most other labs remain near 0.5% or lower, consistent with current leaderboard gaps in contamination-resistant math tasks. Key drivers include Anthropic’s September disclosure on internal AI-assisted R&D progress and strong Claude performance in related high-difficulty math evaluations. With roughly six weeks until resolution, any new model updates or LiveBench question refreshes could still shift positioning before the final snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$24,096End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 78% for topping LiveBench Mathematics by end of October, reflecting trader consensus around its Claude family models’ recent gains in advanced mathematical reasoning and competition-style problem solving. OpenAI trails at 14% amid competitive GPT-5 series releases, while Google sits at just 3.3% and most other labs remain near 0.5% or lower, consistent with current leaderboard gaps in contamination-resistant math tasks. Key drivers include Anthropic’s September disclosure on internal AI-assisted R&D progress and strong Claude performance in related high-difficulty math evaluations. With roughly six weeks until resolution, any new model updates or LiveBench question refreshes could still shift positioning before the final snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$24,096End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 78% for topping LiveBench Mathematics by end of October, reflecting trader consensus around its Claude family models’ recent gains in advanced mathematical reasoning and competition-style problem solving. OpenAI trails at 14% amid competitive GPT-5 series releases, while Google sits at just 3.3% and most other labs remain near 0.5% or lower, consistent with current leaderboard gaps in contamination-resistant math tasks. Key drivers include Anthropic’s September disclosure on internal AI-assisted R&D progress and strong Claude performance in related high-difficulty math evaluations. With roughly six weeks until resolution, any new model updates or LiveBench question refreshes could still shift positioning before the final snapshot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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