Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas livestock and one horse in Presidio County, plus a New Mexico dog case, have sustained trader focus on the Polymarket market, though federal responses remain channeled through USDA-APHIS measures rather than a presidential national emergency declaration. The parasite, eradicated from the U.S. in 1966 via sterile insect technique, causes myiasis by burrowing into living tissue of animals; northward spread from Mexico since 2023 prompted Texas statewide disaster proclamations renewed through September 2026, CDC Level 3 Emergency Operations Center activation, quarantines, movement controls, and expanded sterile fly releases. USDA reports roughly 49 U.S. animal cases by mid-September with no locally acquired human infestations and very low public risk per CDC data, while FDA emergency use authorizations address treatment gaps. Key upcoming factors include continued surveillance updates, sterile fly production scaling, and port reopening decisions that could influence whether broader federal emergency authority is invoked by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedScrewworm National Emergency declared by...?
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
October 31
44%
December 31
46%
$1,880 Vol.
October 31
$13 Vol.
44%
December 31
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas livestock and one horse in Presidio County, plus a New Mexico dog case, have sustained trader focus on the Polymarket market, though federal responses remain channeled through USDA-APHIS measures rather than a presidential national emergency declaration. The parasite, eradicated from the U.S. in 1966 via sterile insect technique, causes myiasis by burrowing into living tissue of animals; northward spread from Mexico since 2023 prompted Texas statewide disaster proclamations renewed through September 2026, CDC Level 3 Emergency Operations Center activation, quarantines, movement controls, and expanded sterile fly releases. USDA reports roughly 49 U.S. animal cases by mid-September with no locally acquired human infestations and very low public risk per CDC data, while FDA emergency use authorizations address treatment gaps. Key upcoming factors include continued surveillance updates, sterile fly production scaling, and port reopening decisions that could influence whether broader federal emergency authority is invoked by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,880End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas livestock and one horse in Presidio County, plus a New Mexico dog case, have sustained trader focus on the Polymarket market, though federal responses remain channeled through USDA-APHIS measures rather than a presidential national emergency declaration. The parasite, eradicated from the U.S. in 1966 via sterile insect technique, causes myiasis by burrowing into living tissue of animals; northward spread from Mexico since 2023 prompted Texas statewide disaster proclamations renewed through September 2026, CDC Level 3 Emergency Operations Center activation, quarantines, movement controls, and expanded sterile fly releases. USDA reports roughly 49 U.S. animal cases by mid-September with no locally acquired human infestations and very low public risk per CDC data, while FDA emergency use authorizations address treatment gaps. Key upcoming factors include continued surveillance updates, sterile fly production scaling, and port reopening decisions that could influence whether broader federal emergency authority is invoked by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,880End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas livestock and one horse in Presidio County, plus a New Mexico dog case, have sustained trader focus on the Polymarket market, though federal responses remain channeled through USDA-APHIS measures rather than a presidential national emergency declaration. The parasite, eradicated from the U.S. in 1966 via sterile insect technique, causes myiasis by burrowing into living tissue of animals; northward spread from Mexico since 2023 prompted Texas statewide disaster proclamations renewed through September 2026, CDC Level 3 Emergency Operations Center activation, quarantines, movement controls, and expanded sterile fly releases. USDA reports roughly 49 U.S. animal cases by mid-September with no locally acquired human infestations and very low public risk per CDC data, while FDA emergency use authorizations address treatment gaps. Key upcoming factors include continued surveillance updates, sterile fly production scaling, and port reopening decisions that could influence whether broader federal emergency authority is invoked by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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