SpaceX has completed only two successful Starship flights in 2026 through mid-September, both suborbital V3 missions that deployed Starlink V3 demonstrators and demonstrated engine relight. The closely matched market-implied odds between <5 (36%) and 5-6 (45.5%) reflect trader focus on whether the program can accelerate after Flight 14 targets the first orbital profile on September 22, pending FAA approval, with 26 production Starlink V3 satellites. Key variables include regulatory licensing timelines, booster recovery reliability following recent landing-burn issues, and infrastructure readiness at Starbase. A successful orbital insertion and deployment could unlock faster testing cadence before year-end, while delays in approvals or technical anomalies would favor the lower outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-6 45%
<5 42%
11-12 2.5%
>16 1.1%
$513,062 Vol.
$513,062 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
36%
5-6
45%
7-8
1%
9-10
<1%
11-12
2%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 45%
<5 42%
11-12 2.5%
>16 1.1%
$513,062 Vol.
$513,062 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$102,744 Vol.
36%
5-6
$117,329 Vol.
45%
7-8
$161,600 Vol.
1%
9-10
$63,389 Vol.
<1%
11-12
$10,320 Vol.
2%
13-14
$11,020 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$32,047 Vol.
<1%
>16
$14,613 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed only two successful Starship flights in 2026 through mid-September, both suborbital V3 missions that deployed Starlink V3 demonstrators and demonstrated engine relight. The closely matched market-implied odds between <5 (36%) and 5-6 (45.5%) reflect trader focus on whether the program can accelerate after Flight 14 targets the first orbital profile on September 22, pending FAA approval, with 26 production Starlink V3 satellites. Key variables include regulatory licensing timelines, booster recovery reliability following recent landing-burn issues, and infrastructure readiness at Starbase. A successful orbital insertion and deployment could unlock faster testing cadence before year-end, while delays in approvals or technical anomalies would favor the lower outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$513,062End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed only two successful Starship flights in 2026 through mid-September, both suborbital V3 missions that deployed Starlink V3 demonstrators and demonstrated engine relight. The closely matched market-implied odds between <5 (36%) and 5-6 (45.5%) reflect trader focus on whether the program can accelerate after Flight 14 targets the first orbital profile on September 22, pending FAA approval, with 26 production Starlink V3 satellites. Key variables include regulatory licensing timelines, booster recovery reliability following recent landing-burn issues, and infrastructure readiness at Starbase. A successful orbital insertion and deployment could unlock faster testing cadence before year-end, while delays in approvals or technical anomalies would favor the lower outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$513,062End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX has completed only two successful Starship flights in 2026 through mid-September, both suborbital V3 missions that deployed Starlink V3 demonstrators and demonstrated engine relight. The closely matched market-implied odds between <5 (36%) and 5-6 (45.5%) reflect trader focus on whether the program can accelerate after Flight 14 targets the first orbital profile on September 22, pending FAA approval, with 26 production Starlink V3 satellites. Key variables include regulatory licensing timelines, booster recovery reliability following recent landing-burn issues, and infrastructure readiness at Starbase. A successful orbital insertion and deployment could unlock faster testing cadence before year-end, while delays in approvals or technical anomalies would favor the lower outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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