Extensive NASA JPL and ESA NEO monitoring, including the Sentry risk assessment system and recent close-approach catalogs, shows no catalogued objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy through the end of 2026. Routine radar tracking, optical surveys, and orbital refinements have confirmed safe flybys of house-sized near-Earth asteroids while historical impact flux data place such events on multi-decade timescales. Trader consensus at 92.5% “No” reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of low residual risk from undetected sub-20-meter objects. Key upcoming catalysts include continued LSST observations that could further constrain any unknown trajectories before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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