Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 83.5% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office tracking no confirmed impacts through mid-May despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs reported by the American Meteor Society—none reaching the required energy threshold equivalent to a small nuclear detonation. Recent safe close approaches, including bus-sized asteroid 2026 HJ1 in April and airplane-sized 2026 HR, highlight advanced NEO detection capabilities, with the newly discovered 21-meter 2026 JH2 set for a harmless flyby on May 18 at 90,000 km. Historical rarity of such events, combined with over 95% cataloging of city-killer asteroids larger than 140 meters, underpins the odds, though undiscovered small impactors represent residual uncertainty ahead of year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$153,356 Vol.
$153,356 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$153,356 Vol.
$153,356 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 83.5% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office tracking no confirmed impacts through mid-May despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs reported by the American Meteor Society—none reaching the required energy threshold equivalent to a small nuclear detonation. Recent safe close approaches, including bus-sized asteroid 2026 HJ1 in April and airplane-sized 2026 HR, highlight advanced NEO detection capabilities, with the newly discovered 21-meter 2026 JH2 set for a harmless flyby on May 18 at 90,000 km. Historical rarity of such events, combined with over 95% cataloging of city-killer asteroids larger than 140 meters, underpins the odds, though undiscovered small impactors represent residual uncertainty ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$153,356End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 83.5% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office tracking no confirmed impacts through mid-May despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs reported by the American Meteor Society—none reaching the required energy threshold equivalent to a small nuclear detonation. Recent safe close approaches, including bus-sized asteroid 2026 HJ1 in April and airplane-sized 2026 HR, highlight advanced NEO detection capabilities, with the newly discovered 21-meter 2026 JH2 set for a harmless flyby on May 18 at 90,000 km. Historical rarity of such events, combined with over 95% cataloging of city-killer asteroids larger than 140 meters, underpins the odds, though undiscovered small impactors represent residual uncertainty ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$153,356End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 83.5% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office tracking no confirmed impacts through mid-May despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs reported by the American Meteor Society—none reaching the required energy threshold equivalent to a small nuclear detonation. Recent safe close approaches, including bus-sized asteroid 2026 HJ1 in April and airplane-sized 2026 HR, highlight advanced NEO detection capabilities, with the newly discovered 21-meter 2026 JH2 set for a harmless flyby on May 18 at 90,000 km. Historical rarity of such events, combined with over 95% cataloging of city-killer asteroids larger than 140 meters, underpins the odds, though undiscovered small impactors represent residual uncertainty ahead of year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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