**No 10.0-or-larger earthquake is possible under known geophysical constraints, which is why traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” with only months remaining before 2027.** Earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault-rupture length; a 10.0 event would require a continuous rupture spanning thousands of kilometers—roughly the length of a major plate boundary or longer—yet no such fault exists on Earth. The U.S. Geological Survey states explicitly that magnitudes of 10 or above cannot occur, a conclusion supported by the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile, quake of 1960 on an approximately 1,000-mile rupture, the largest ever recorded. With the short remaining window and no new observational data or modeling shifts suggesting a revision to these limits, the market-implied odds reflect the established tectonic reality rather than any near-term forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
<1% chance
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1% chance
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No 10.0-or-larger earthquake is possible under known geophysical constraints, which is why traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” with only months remaining before 2027.** Earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault-rupture length; a 10.0 event would require a continuous rupture spanning thousands of kilometers—roughly the length of a major plate boundary or longer—yet no such fault exists on Earth. The U.S. Geological Survey states explicitly that magnitudes of 10 or above cannot occur, a conclusion supported by the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile, quake of 1960 on an approximately 1,000-mile rupture, the largest ever recorded. With the short remaining window and no new observational data or modeling shifts suggesting a revision to these limits, the market-implied odds reflect the established tectonic reality rather than any near-term forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$789,825End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No 10.0-or-larger earthquake is possible under known geophysical constraints, which is why traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” with only months remaining before 2027.** Earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault-rupture length; a 10.0 event would require a continuous rupture spanning thousands of kilometers—roughly the length of a major plate boundary or longer—yet no such fault exists on Earth. The U.S. Geological Survey states explicitly that magnitudes of 10 or above cannot occur, a conclusion supported by the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile, quake of 1960 on an approximately 1,000-mile rupture, the largest ever recorded. With the short remaining window and no new observational data or modeling shifts suggesting a revision to these limits, the market-implied odds reflect the established tectonic reality rather than any near-term forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$789,825End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No 10.0-or-larger earthquake is possible under known geophysical constraints, which is why traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” with only months remaining before 2027.** Earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault-rupture length; a 10.0 event would require a continuous rupture spanning thousands of kilometers—roughly the length of a major plate boundary or longer—yet no such fault exists on Earth. The U.S. Geological Survey states explicitly that magnitudes of 10 or above cannot occur, a conclusion supported by the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile, quake of 1960 on an approximately 1,000-mile rupture, the largest ever recorded. With the short remaining window and no new observational data or modeling shifts suggesting a revision to these limits, the market-implied odds reflect the established tectonic reality rather than any near-term forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions