Earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault rupture length and area, and no known tectonic feature on Earth approaches the roughly 10,000-kilometer scale needed for a 10.0 event. USGS analyses confirm the physical upper bound lies near 9.5–9.7 along the longest subduction zones, matching the 1960 Valdivia, Chile quake—the largest instrumentally recorded. With fewer than 18 months until 2027 and no new seismic data, modeling updates, or tectonic observations suggesting larger ruptures, trader consensus correctly prices the outcome as effectively impossible under current geophysical constraints. Only an unforeseen discovery of a previously unknown planet-spanning fault could alter this assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
<1% chance
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1% chance
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault rupture length and area, and no known tectonic feature on Earth approaches the roughly 10,000-kilometer scale needed for a 10.0 event. USGS analyses confirm the physical upper bound lies near 9.5–9.7 along the longest subduction zones, matching the 1960 Valdivia, Chile quake—the largest instrumentally recorded. With fewer than 18 months until 2027 and no new seismic data, modeling updates, or tectonic observations suggesting larger ruptures, trader consensus correctly prices the outcome as effectively impossible under current geophysical constraints. Only an unforeseen discovery of a previously unknown planet-spanning fault could alter this assessment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$789,825End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault rupture length and area, and no known tectonic feature on Earth approaches the roughly 10,000-kilometer scale needed for a 10.0 event. USGS analyses confirm the physical upper bound lies near 9.5–9.7 along the longest subduction zones, matching the 1960 Valdivia, Chile quake—the largest instrumentally recorded. With fewer than 18 months until 2027 and no new seismic data, modeling updates, or tectonic observations suggesting larger ruptures, trader consensus correctly prices the outcome as effectively impossible under current geophysical constraints. Only an unforeseen discovery of a previously unknown planet-spanning fault could alter this assessment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$789,825End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault rupture length and area, and no known tectonic feature on Earth approaches the roughly 10,000-kilometer scale needed for a 10.0 event. USGS analyses confirm the physical upper bound lies near 9.5–9.7 along the longest subduction zones, matching the 1960 Valdivia, Chile quake—the largest instrumentally recorded. With fewer than 18 months until 2027 and no new seismic data, modeling updates, or tectonic observations suggesting larger ruptures, trader consensus correctly prices the outcome as effectively impossible under current geophysical constraints. Only an unforeseen discovery of a previously unknown planet-spanning fault could alter this assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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