The brief remaining window until 2027, paired with USGS monitoring showing only minor seismic activity such as the May 2026 Brawley swarm (max M4.7) and scattered events below M5, underpins the strong 94.4% market-implied odds against a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles region. Southern California faults, including segments of the San Andreas and local blind thrusts, exhibit recurrence intervals of decades to centuries for events of this scale, consistent with the absence of any qualifying quake in recent years. While forecast models carry inherent uncertainty and an unexpected stress release remains possible, current observational data and low short-term probabilities reinforce trader consensus favoring “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
6% chance
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The brief remaining window until 2027, paired with USGS monitoring showing only minor seismic activity such as the May 2026 Brawley swarm (max M4.7) and scattered events below M5, underpins the strong 94.4% market-implied odds against a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles region. Southern California faults, including segments of the San Andreas and local blind thrusts, exhibit recurrence intervals of decades to centuries for events of this scale, consistent with the absence of any qualifying quake in recent years. While forecast models carry inherent uncertainty and an unexpected stress release remains possible, current observational data and low short-term probabilities reinforce trader consensus favoring “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$16,533End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The brief remaining window until 2027, paired with USGS monitoring showing only minor seismic activity such as the May 2026 Brawley swarm (max M4.7) and scattered events below M5, underpins the strong 94.4% market-implied odds against a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles region. Southern California faults, including segments of the San Andreas and local blind thrusts, exhibit recurrence intervals of decades to centuries for events of this scale, consistent with the absence of any qualifying quake in recent years. While forecast models carry inherent uncertainty and an unexpected stress release remains possible, current observational data and low short-term probabilities reinforce trader consensus favoring “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$16,533End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The brief remaining window until 2027, paired with USGS monitoring showing only minor seismic activity such as the May 2026 Brawley swarm (max M4.7) and scattered events below M5, underpins the strong 94.4% market-implied odds against a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles region. Southern California faults, including segments of the San Andreas and local blind thrusts, exhibit recurrence intervals of decades to centuries for events of this scale, consistent with the absence of any qualifying quake in recent years. While forecast models carry inherent uncertainty and an unexpected stress release remains possible, current observational data and low short-term probabilities reinforce trader consensus favoring “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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