The near-certain trader consensus for “No” reflects the low baseline rate of magnitude 6.5+ events in the Los Angeles region, where USGS monitoring and historical records show the last comparable quake was the 1994 Northridge event. Recent activity remains limited to frequent minor tremors below magnitude 4.0, with no foreshock sequences, strain anomalies, or model consensus indicating elevated short-term risk on faults such as the San Andreas or Puente Hills. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, the annualized hazard compresses to well under 5 percent. A sudden rupture on an under-monitored local fault could still shift odds, though current USGS data provide no supporting indicators.