Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95% implied probability of no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megaquakes—only five verified events globally since 1900, per USGS records, with none since the 2011 Tōhoku 9.1. These require full rupture of 1,000+ km subduction zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench, occurring roughly once every 20–30 years on average, yielding an annual probability below 5% even before prorating for the remaining seven months. Recent 2026 activity, including M7.4–7.5 events in Japan, Indonesia, and Tonga, shows no precursors like slow-slip events or foreshock swarms on capable faults, per USGS monitoring. While unpredictable, a sudden full megathrust rupture remains the sole realistic scenario to shift odds, with ongoing seismic networks providing real-time updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$191,379 Vol.
$191,379 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$191,379 Vol.
$191,379 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95% implied probability of no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megaquakes—only five verified events globally since 1900, per USGS records, with none since the 2011 Tōhoku 9.1. These require full rupture of 1,000+ km subduction zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench, occurring roughly once every 20–30 years on average, yielding an annual probability below 5% even before prorating for the remaining seven months. Recent 2026 activity, including M7.4–7.5 events in Japan, Indonesia, and Tonga, shows no precursors like slow-slip events or foreshock swarms on capable faults, per USGS monitoring. While unpredictable, a sudden full megathrust rupture remains the sole realistic scenario to shift odds, with ongoing seismic networks providing real-time updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$191,379End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95% implied probability of no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megaquakes—only five verified events globally since 1900, per USGS records, with none since the 2011 Tōhoku 9.1. These require full rupture of 1,000+ km subduction zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench, occurring roughly once every 20–30 years on average, yielding an annual probability below 5% even before prorating for the remaining seven months. Recent 2026 activity, including M7.4–7.5 events in Japan, Indonesia, and Tonga, shows no precursors like slow-slip events or foreshock swarms on capable faults, per USGS monitoring. While unpredictable, a sudden full megathrust rupture remains the sole realistic scenario to shift odds, with ongoing seismic networks providing real-time updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$191,379End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95% implied probability of no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megaquakes—only five verified events globally since 1900, per USGS records, with none since the 2011 Tōhoku 9.1. These require full rupture of 1,000+ km subduction zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench, occurring roughly once every 20–30 years on average, yielding an annual probability below 5% even before prorating for the remaining seven months. Recent 2026 activity, including M7.4–7.5 events in Japan, Indonesia, and Tonga, shows no precursors like slow-slip events or foreshock swarms on capable faults, per USGS monitoring. While unpredictable, a sudden full megathrust rupture remains the sole realistic scenario to shift odds, with ongoing seismic networks providing real-time updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions