The rarity of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes, which occur on average once every few decades globally according to USGS historical catalogs, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability for no such event before 2027. Seismic monitoring shows no current indicators of an imminent megathrust rupture in high-risk subduction zones, and recent activity remains well below these thresholds. Historical precedents indicate long recurrence intervals between great earthquakes, reinforcing trader consensus around the low near-term likelihood. However, sudden stress accumulation along faults like Cascadia or the Japan Trench could still produce an unexpected M9+ event within the remaining timeframe, as model projections of seismic cycles carry inherent uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6% chance
$272,928 Vol.
$272,928 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$272,928 Vol.
$272,928 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The rarity of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes, which occur on average once every few decades globally according to USGS historical catalogs, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability for no such event before 2027. Seismic monitoring shows no current indicators of an imminent megathrust rupture in high-risk subduction zones, and recent activity remains well below these thresholds. Historical precedents indicate long recurrence intervals between great earthquakes, reinforcing trader consensus around the low near-term likelihood. However, sudden stress accumulation along faults like Cascadia or the Japan Trench could still produce an unexpected M9+ event within the remaining timeframe, as model projections of seismic cycles carry inherent uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$272,928End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The rarity of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes, which occur on average once every few decades globally according to USGS historical catalogs, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability for no such event before 2027. Seismic monitoring shows no current indicators of an imminent megathrust rupture in high-risk subduction zones, and recent activity remains well below these thresholds. Historical precedents indicate long recurrence intervals between great earthquakes, reinforcing trader consensus around the low near-term likelihood. However, sudden stress accumulation along faults like Cascadia or the Japan Trench could still produce an unexpected M9+ event within the remaining timeframe, as model projections of seismic cycles carry inherent uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$272,928End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The rarity of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes, which occur on average once every few decades globally according to USGS historical catalogs, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability for no such event before 2027. Seismic monitoring shows no current indicators of an imminent megathrust rupture in high-risk subduction zones, and recent activity remains well below these thresholds. Historical precedents indicate long recurrence intervals between great earthquakes, reinforcing trader consensus around the low near-term likelihood. However, sudden stress accumulation along faults like Cascadia or the Japan Trench could still produce an unexpected M9+ event within the remaining timeframe, as model projections of seismic cycles carry inherent uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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