Historical rarity drives the 92.8% market-implied probability of no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027. USGS records show only a handful of such events worldwide since 1900, supporting an annual base rate of roughly 6-12%. In 2026, activity has included several magnitude 7+ quakes, such as the 7.8 offshore Mindanao and 7.4 in Colombia, yet none have reached 8.0, consistent with long-term probabilistic models rather than short-term forecasts. While subduction zones like Cascadia or the Kuril Trench carry ongoing risk, the brief remaining window and lack of precursors keep trader consensus firmly against a megaquake, though an unexpected full-margin rupture remains possible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
7% chance
$273,597 Vol.
$273,597 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$273,597 Vol.
$273,597 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Historical rarity drives the 92.8% market-implied probability of no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027. USGS records show only a handful of such events worldwide since 1900, supporting an annual base rate of roughly 6-12%. In 2026, activity has included several magnitude 7+ quakes, such as the 7.8 offshore Mindanao and 7.4 in Colombia, yet none have reached 8.0, consistent with long-term probabilistic models rather than short-term forecasts. While subduction zones like Cascadia or the Kuril Trench carry ongoing risk, the brief remaining window and lack of precursors keep trader consensus firmly against a megaquake, though an unexpected full-margin rupture remains possible.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$273,597End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Historical rarity drives the 92.8% market-implied probability of no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027. USGS records show only a handful of such events worldwide since 1900, supporting an annual base rate of roughly 6-12%. In 2026, activity has included several magnitude 7+ quakes, such as the 7.8 offshore Mindanao and 7.4 in Colombia, yet none have reached 8.0, consistent with long-term probabilistic models rather than short-term forecasts. While subduction zones like Cascadia or the Kuril Trench carry ongoing risk, the brief remaining window and lack of precursors keep trader consensus firmly against a megaquake, though an unexpected full-margin rupture remains possible.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$273,597End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Historical rarity drives the 92.8% market-implied probability of no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027. USGS records show only a handful of such events worldwide since 1900, supporting an annual base rate of roughly 6-12%. In 2026, activity has included several magnitude 7+ quakes, such as the 7.8 offshore Mindanao and 7.4 in Colombia, yet none have reached 8.0, consistent with long-term probabilistic models rather than short-term forecasts. While subduction zones like Cascadia or the Kuril Trench carry ongoing risk, the brief remaining window and lack of precursors keep trader consensus firmly against a megaquake, though an unexpected full-margin rupture remains possible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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