Recent ensemble forecasts for Madrid show notable spread around the climatological late-August average high of 32–33°C, with dynamical models indicating potential for modest warming or cooling tied to evolving high-pressure patterns and Atlantic moisture intrusions. Official guidance from sources such as AEMET and ECMWF highlights uncertainty in maximum temperatures on the 15th, where small shifts in subsidence strength or boundary-layer mixing could push readings to 34–35°C or hold them near 32°C. The dispersed market-implied probabilities reflect this model disagreement and the limited lead time before resolution, underscoring how daily verification against surface observations will determine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 15?
34°C 31%
33°C 26%
32°C 15%
35°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
5%
32°C
15%
33°C
26%
34°C
34%
35°C
14%
36°C
6%
37°C
3%
38°C
2%
39°C
3%
40°C or higher
2%
34°C 31%
33°C 26%
32°C 15%
35°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
31°C
$5 Vol.
5%
32°C
$7 Vol.
15%
33°C
$25 Vol.
26%
34°C
$92 Vol.
34%
35°C
$38 Vol.
14%
36°C
$10 Vol.
6%
37°C
$15 Vol.
3%
38°C
$27 Vol.
2%
39°C
$12 Vol.
3%
40°C or higher
$12 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts for Madrid show notable spread around the climatological late-August average high of 32–33°C, with dynamical models indicating potential for modest warming or cooling tied to evolving high-pressure patterns and Atlantic moisture intrusions. Official guidance from sources such as AEMET and ECMWF highlights uncertainty in maximum temperatures on the 15th, where small shifts in subsidence strength or boundary-layer mixing could push readings to 34–35°C or hold them near 32°C. The dispersed market-implied probabilities reflect this model disagreement and the limited lead time before resolution, underscoring how daily verification against surface observations will determine the exact peak.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$255End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts for Madrid show notable spread around the climatological late-August average high of 32–33°C, with dynamical models indicating potential for modest warming or cooling tied to evolving high-pressure patterns and Atlantic moisture intrusions. Official guidance from sources such as AEMET and ECMWF highlights uncertainty in maximum temperatures on the 15th, where small shifts in subsidence strength or boundary-layer mixing could push readings to 34–35°C or hold them near 32°C. The dispersed market-implied probabilities reflect this model disagreement and the limited lead time before resolution, underscoring how daily verification against surface observations will determine the exact peak.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$255End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts for Madrid show notable spread around the climatological late-August average high of 32–33°C, with dynamical models indicating potential for modest warming or cooling tied to evolving high-pressure patterns and Atlantic moisture intrusions. Official guidance from sources such as AEMET and ECMWF highlights uncertainty in maximum temperatures on the 15th, where small shifts in subsidence strength or boundary-layer mixing could push readings to 34–35°C or hold them near 32°C. The dispersed market-implied probabilities reflect this model disagreement and the limited lead time before resolution, underscoring how daily verification against surface observations will determine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions