Recent forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and TimeandDate indicate Shenzhen highs near 32–34°C on August 15 amid a subtropical monsoon pattern, with scattered thunderstorms and overcast skies expected to moderate peaks through reduced solar heating and evaporative cooling. High humidity above 75% and typical August convective activity further constrain extremes, aligning with the market's tight spread where 32°C leads at 27.5% implied probability. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum, as small shifts in storm timing or cloud cover can differentiate outcomes in this narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15?
32°C 28%
33°C 20%
31°C 16%
34°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
11%
31°C
16%
32°C
25%
33°C
20%
34°C
14%
35°C
6%
36°C
7%
37°C or higher
7%
32°C 28%
33°C 20%
31°C 16%
34°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
28°C
$12 Vol.
1%
29°C
$59 Vol.
3%
30°C
$0 Vol.
11%
31°C
$0 Vol.
16%
32°C
$27 Vol.
25%
33°C
$27 Vol.
20%
34°C
$5 Vol.
14%
35°C
$2 Vol.
6%
36°C
$5 Vol.
7%
37°C or higher
$12 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and TimeandDate indicate Shenzhen highs near 32–34°C on August 15 amid a subtropical monsoon pattern, with scattered thunderstorms and overcast skies expected to moderate peaks through reduced solar heating and evaporative cooling. High humidity above 75% and typical August convective activity further constrain extremes, aligning with the market's tight spread where 32°C leads at 27.5% implied probability. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum, as small shifts in storm timing or cloud cover can differentiate outcomes in this narrow range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$162End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and TimeandDate indicate Shenzhen highs near 32–34°C on August 15 amid a subtropical monsoon pattern, with scattered thunderstorms and overcast skies expected to moderate peaks through reduced solar heating and evaporative cooling. High humidity above 75% and typical August convective activity further constrain extremes, aligning with the market's tight spread where 32°C leads at 27.5% implied probability. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum, as small shifts in storm timing or cloud cover can differentiate outcomes in this narrow range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$162End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and TimeandDate indicate Shenzhen highs near 32–34°C on August 15 amid a subtropical monsoon pattern, with scattered thunderstorms and overcast skies expected to moderate peaks through reduced solar heating and evaporative cooling. High humidity above 75% and typical August convective activity further constrain extremes, aligning with the market's tight spread where 32°C leads at 27.5% implied probability. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum, as small shifts in storm timing or cloud cover can differentiate outcomes in this narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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