Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate a highest temperature near 28–30°C for Tokyo on August 13, with scattered showers and increased cloud cover expected to moderate daytime heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 28°C (34.5% implied probability) over 29°C or 27°C, as seasonal Pacific high pressure yields to transient frontal activity following July's extreme heat. Key differentiating factors include precise timing of rainfall, which can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C, and urban heat island effects that amplify maxima under clearer skies. Updated model runs and JMA briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these narrow spreads ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
28°C 34%
29°C 24%
27°C 21%
30°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
6%
27°C
21%
28°C
34%
29°C
24%
30°C
10%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 34%
29°C 24%
27°C 21%
30°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
$472 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$172 Vol.
1%
25°C
$58 Vol.
1%
26°C
$240 Vol.
6%
27°C
$795 Vol.
21%
28°C
$806 Vol.
34%
29°C
$292 Vol.
24%
30°C
$252 Vol.
10%
31°C
$338 Vol.
6%
32°C
$234 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate a highest temperature near 28–30°C for Tokyo on August 13, with scattered showers and increased cloud cover expected to moderate daytime heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 28°C (34.5% implied probability) over 29°C or 27°C, as seasonal Pacific high pressure yields to transient frontal activity following July's extreme heat. Key differentiating factors include precise timing of rainfall, which can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C, and urban heat island effects that amplify maxima under clearer skies. Updated model runs and JMA briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these narrow spreads ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$4,618End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate a highest temperature near 28–30°C for Tokyo on August 13, with scattered showers and increased cloud cover expected to moderate daytime heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 28°C (34.5% implied probability) over 29°C or 27°C, as seasonal Pacific high pressure yields to transient frontal activity following July's extreme heat. Key differentiating factors include precise timing of rainfall, which can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C, and urban heat island effects that amplify maxima under clearer skies. Updated model runs and JMA briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these narrow spreads ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,618End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate a highest temperature near 28–30°C for Tokyo on August 13, with scattered showers and increased cloud cover expected to moderate daytime heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 28°C (34.5% implied probability) over 29°C or 27°C, as seasonal Pacific high pressure yields to transient frontal activity following July's extreme heat. Key differentiating factors include precise timing of rainfall, which can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C, and urban heat island effects that amplify maxima under clearer skies. Updated model runs and JMA briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these narrow spreads ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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