Recent Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts indicate a strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe will sustain clear skies, subsidence, and light winds over Paris through August 13, supporting efficient daytime heating and afternoon maxima clustered around 37–39 °C. These conditions sit well above the long-term August climatological mean of roughly 24–25 °C, with limited model spread and dry antecedent soils amplifying the signal. Traders have accordingly placed the strongest implied probability on 38 °C, followed by 37 °C and 39 °C, while discounting extremes outside this narrow band. Official station observations from Paris-Montsouris will determine resolution, with the next model update cycle likely to tighten the forecast range before the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 13?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 13?
38°C 43%
37°C 22%
39°C 15%
36°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
9%
37°C
22%
38°C
43%
39°C
15%
40°C
5%
41°C
2%
42°C or higher
<1%
38°C 43%
37°C 22%
39°C 15%
36°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
32°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$12 Vol.
1%
35°C
$8 Vol.
4%
36°C
$25 Vol.
9%
37°C
$0 Vol.
22%
38°C
$105 Vol.
43%
39°C
$20 Vol.
15%
40°C
$9 Vol.
5%
41°C
$15 Vol.
2%
42°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts indicate a strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe will sustain clear skies, subsidence, and light winds over Paris through August 13, supporting efficient daytime heating and afternoon maxima clustered around 37–39 °C. These conditions sit well above the long-term August climatological mean of roughly 24–25 °C, with limited model spread and dry antecedent soils amplifying the signal. Traders have accordingly placed the strongest implied probability on 38 °C, followed by 37 °C and 39 °C, while discounting extremes outside this narrow band. Official station observations from Paris-Montsouris will determine resolution, with the next model update cycle likely to tighten the forecast range before the event.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$229End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts indicate a strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe will sustain clear skies, subsidence, and light winds over Paris through August 13, supporting efficient daytime heating and afternoon maxima clustered around 37–39 °C. These conditions sit well above the long-term August climatological mean of roughly 24–25 °C, with limited model spread and dry antecedent soils amplifying the signal. Traders have accordingly placed the strongest implied probability on 38 °C, followed by 37 °C and 39 °C, while discounting extremes outside this narrow band. Official station observations from Paris-Montsouris will determine resolution, with the next model update cycle likely to tighten the forecast range before the event.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$229End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts indicate a strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe will sustain clear skies, subsidence, and light winds over Paris through August 13, supporting efficient daytime heating and afternoon maxima clustered around 37–39 °C. These conditions sit well above the long-term August climatological mean of roughly 24–25 °C, with limited model spread and dry antecedent soils amplifying the signal. Traders have accordingly placed the strongest implied probability on 38 °C, followed by 37 °C and 39 °C, while discounting extremes outside this narrow band. Official station observations from Paris-Montsouris will determine resolution, with the next model update cycle likely to tighten the forecast range before the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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