Traders assign the highest implied probability to a 29°C minimum in Hong Kong on August 11, reflecting the Hong Kong Observatory’s official forecast of a 29°C low and 35°C high amid persistently above-normal seasonal temperatures. This outlook aligns with long-term warming trends and current climate signals favoring elevated overnight readings, as evidenced by the prior week’s 26°C minimum on August 6. Key variables include urban heat-island effects, light winds, and limited cloud cover that could sustain higher minima, while any unexpected showers or stronger monsoon flow might nudge the outcome toward 28°C or 30°C. Updated HKO guidance and regional model runs over the next 48 hours remain the primary near-term catalysts for market adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?
29°C 47%
30°C 27%
28°C 17%
27°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
12%
28°C
17%
29°C
47%
30°C
27%
31°C
9%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 47%
30°C 27%
28°C 17%
27°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
24°C or below
$34 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
4%
27°C
$0 Vol.
12%
28°C
$31 Vol.
17%
29°C
$15 Vol.
47%
30°C
$83 Vol.
27%
31°C
$0 Vol.
9%
32°C
$49 Vol.
1%
33°C
$5 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$140 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign the highest implied probability to a 29°C minimum in Hong Kong on August 11, reflecting the Hong Kong Observatory’s official forecast of a 29°C low and 35°C high amid persistently above-normal seasonal temperatures. This outlook aligns with long-term warming trends and current climate signals favoring elevated overnight readings, as evidenced by the prior week’s 26°C minimum on August 6. Key variables include urban heat-island effects, light winds, and limited cloud cover that could sustain higher minima, while any unexpected showers or stronger monsoon flow might nudge the outcome toward 28°C or 30°C. Updated HKO guidance and regional model runs over the next 48 hours remain the primary near-term catalysts for market adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$357End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign the highest implied probability to a 29°C minimum in Hong Kong on August 11, reflecting the Hong Kong Observatory’s official forecast of a 29°C low and 35°C high amid persistently above-normal seasonal temperatures. This outlook aligns with long-term warming trends and current climate signals favoring elevated overnight readings, as evidenced by the prior week’s 26°C minimum on August 6. Key variables include urban heat-island effects, light winds, and limited cloud cover that could sustain higher minima, while any unexpected showers or stronger monsoon flow might nudge the outcome toward 28°C or 30°C. Updated HKO guidance and regional model runs over the next 48 hours remain the primary near-term catalysts for market adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$357End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability to a 29°C minimum in Hong Kong on August 11, reflecting the Hong Kong Observatory’s official forecast of a 29°C low and 35°C high amid persistently above-normal seasonal temperatures. This outlook aligns with long-term warming trends and current climate signals favoring elevated overnight readings, as evidenced by the prior week’s 26°C minimum on August 6. Key variables include urban heat-island effects, light winds, and limited cloud cover that could sustain higher minima, while any unexpected showers or stronger monsoon flow might nudge the outcome toward 28°C or 30°C. Updated HKO guidance and regional model runs over the next 48 hours remain the primary near-term catalysts for market adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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