Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate Tokyo's overnight low on August 11 will likely settle near 23°C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. Persistent cloud cover and humidity limit nighttime radiative cooling, supporting the market's strong consensus around 23–24°C while keeping lower outcomes like 22°C or below less probable. These conditions align with August climatology, where average minimums hover near 23.8°C, and recent model runs show minimal deviation from that baseline absent any major frontal systems. Updated forecasts over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
23°C 55%
24°C 25%
22°C 17%
19°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
5%
20°C
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
17%
23°C
55%
24°C
25%
25°C
4%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 55%
24°C 25%
22°C 17%
19°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
18°C or below
$27 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$158 Vol.
5%
20°C
$71 Vol.
2%
21°C
$43 Vol.
5%
22°C
$75 Vol.
17%
23°C
$243 Vol.
55%
24°C
$250 Vol.
25%
25°C
$63 Vol.
4%
26°C
$539 Vol.
1%
27°C
$23 Vol.
4%
28°C or higher
$32 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate Tokyo's overnight low on August 11 will likely settle near 23°C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. Persistent cloud cover and humidity limit nighttime radiative cooling, supporting the market's strong consensus around 23–24°C while keeping lower outcomes like 22°C or below less probable. These conditions align with August climatology, where average minimums hover near 23.8°C, and recent model runs show minimal deviation from that baseline absent any major frontal systems. Updated forecasts over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$1,523End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate Tokyo's overnight low on August 11 will likely settle near 23°C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. Persistent cloud cover and humidity limit nighttime radiative cooling, supporting the market's strong consensus around 23–24°C while keeping lower outcomes like 22°C or below less probable. These conditions align with August climatology, where average minimums hover near 23.8°C, and recent model runs show minimal deviation from that baseline absent any major frontal systems. Updated forecasts over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,523End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate Tokyo's overnight low on August 11 will likely settle near 23°C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. Persistent cloud cover and humidity limit nighttime radiative cooling, supporting the market's strong consensus around 23–24°C while keeping lower outcomes like 22°C or below less probable. These conditions align with August climatology, where average minimums hover near 23.8°C, and recent model runs show minimal deviation from that baseline absent any major frontal systems. Updated forecasts over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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