Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from global models highlight subtle variability in Shanghai's peak temperatures for August 9, with consensus clustering around 29–30°C amid typical summer subtropical high pressure and elevated humidity levels near 70–80%. This positioning stems from current observational trends showing daytime maxima in the low 30s°C, tempered by potential cloud cover or light precipitation that could suppress readings by 1–2°C, while clear conditions or stronger insolation might push toward 31°C. The narrow spread in market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C captures genuine uncertainty in steering patterns and urban heat effects at official monitoring sites, with historical August baselines around 31°C providing context but limited by model divergence on exact timing of any frontal influences. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?
29°C 36%
30°C 32%
31°C 13%
28°C 13%
NEW
$12,999 Vol.
NEW
$12,999 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
4%
28°C
13%
29°C
36%
30°C
32%
31°C
13%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 36%
30°C 32%
31°C 13%
28°C 13%
NEW
$12,999 Vol.
NEW
$12,999 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
24°C or below
$4,864 Vol.
1%
25°C
$2,519 Vol.
1%
26°C
$338 Vol.
4%
27°C
$855 Vol.
4%
28°C
$623 Vol.
13%
29°C
$1,637 Vol.
36%
30°C
$748 Vol.
32%
31°C
$977 Vol.
13%
32°C
$120 Vol.
3%
33°C
$158 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$160 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from global models highlight subtle variability in Shanghai's peak temperatures for August 9, with consensus clustering around 29–30°C amid typical summer subtropical high pressure and elevated humidity levels near 70–80%. This positioning stems from current observational trends showing daytime maxima in the low 30s°C, tempered by potential cloud cover or light precipitation that could suppress readings by 1–2°C, while clear conditions or stronger insolation might push toward 31°C. The narrow spread in market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C captures genuine uncertainty in steering patterns and urban heat effects at official monitoring sites, with historical August baselines around 31°C providing context but limited by model divergence on exact timing of any frontal influences. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$12,999End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from global models highlight subtle variability in Shanghai's peak temperatures for August 9, with consensus clustering around 29–30°C amid typical summer subtropical high pressure and elevated humidity levels near 70–80%. This positioning stems from current observational trends showing daytime maxima in the low 30s°C, tempered by potential cloud cover or light precipitation that could suppress readings by 1–2°C, while clear conditions or stronger insolation might push toward 31°C. The narrow spread in market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C captures genuine uncertainty in steering patterns and urban heat effects at official monitoring sites, with historical August baselines around 31°C providing context but limited by model divergence on exact timing of any frontal influences. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,999End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from global models highlight subtle variability in Shanghai's peak temperatures for August 9, with consensus clustering around 29–30°C amid typical summer subtropical high pressure and elevated humidity levels near 70–80%. This positioning stems from current observational trends showing daytime maxima in the low 30s°C, tempered by potential cloud cover or light precipitation that could suppress readings by 1–2°C, while clear conditions or stronger insolation might push toward 31°C. The narrow spread in market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C captures genuine uncertainty in steering patterns and urban heat effects at official monitoring sites, with historical August baselines around 31°C providing context but limited by model divergence on exact timing of any frontal influences. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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