Recent short-range forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and others indicate a peak temperature near 37–38°C for Madrid on August 7, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 38°C outcome at 47% implied probability. Madrid’s continental climate produces hot, dry summer conditions with low humidity and clear skies that favor rapid daytime heating, while typical early-August highs average 32–34°C. Current steering patterns and minimal cloud cover support modest intensification above the seasonal baseline, though model spreads introduce uncertainty around exact maxima. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine whether 39°C materializes or temperatures remain capped near 38°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 7?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 7?
38°C 48%
39°C 29%
40°C 10%
37°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
35°C or below
2%
36°C
4%
37°C
10%
38°C
48%
39°C
29%
40°C
10%
41°C
2%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
38°C 48%
39°C 29%
40°C 10%
37°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
35°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
36°C
$9 Vol.
4%
37°C
$21 Vol.
10%
38°C
$155 Vol.
48%
39°C
$35 Vol.
29%
40°C
$90 Vol.
10%
41°C
$73 Vol.
2%
42°C
$60 Vol.
1%
43°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and others indicate a peak temperature near 37–38°C for Madrid on August 7, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 38°C outcome at 47% implied probability. Madrid’s continental climate produces hot, dry summer conditions with low humidity and clear skies that favor rapid daytime heating, while typical early-August highs average 32–34°C. Current steering patterns and minimal cloud cover support modest intensification above the seasonal baseline, though model spreads introduce uncertainty around exact maxima. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine whether 39°C materializes or temperatures remain capped near 38°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$482End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and others indicate a peak temperature near 37–38°C for Madrid on August 7, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 38°C outcome at 47% implied probability. Madrid’s continental climate produces hot, dry summer conditions with low humidity and clear skies that favor rapid daytime heating, while typical early-August highs average 32–34°C. Current steering patterns and minimal cloud cover support modest intensification above the seasonal baseline, though model spreads introduce uncertainty around exact maxima. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine whether 39°C materializes or temperatures remain capped near 38°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$482End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and others indicate a peak temperature near 37–38°C for Madrid on August 7, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 38°C outcome at 47% implied probability. Madrid’s continental climate produces hot, dry summer conditions with low humidity and clear skies that favor rapid daytime heating, while typical early-August highs average 32–34°C. Current steering patterns and minimal cloud cover support modest intensification above the seasonal baseline, though model spreads introduce uncertainty around exact maxima. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine whether 39°C materializes or temperatures remain capped near 38°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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